Connor Hare

It was a quiet week on the economic data calendar, but a very active one in financial markets. Longer-term Treasury yields continued their relentless climb, with the 30-year yield briefly touching a 19-year high on Monday (Chart 1). Some relief came Wednesday, when the Treasury Department announced it would temporarily increase longer-duration debt buybacks to improve market liquidity. However, the move does nothing to change the broader fiscal backdrop, and at best only modestly alters the composition of debt holdings. With total U.S. government debt topping $40 trillion this week, bond markets quickly refocused on the troubling fiscal trajectory, leading yields to retrace most of Wednesday’s decline. Equity markets also came under pressure this week, despite multiple major retailers lifting earnings guidance. At the time of writing, the S&P500 is down 1.5%, while the NASDAQ is lower by 2.4%.

As we noted in our Quarterly Q&A, most of the recent increase in longer-term yields reflects two forces: shifting expectations for Fed policy and a higher term premium. While the precise drivers are difficult to isolate, fiscal supply concerns appear to be a major contributor to the rise in the term premium. With the U.S. expected to run annual deficits of +6% of GDP for the foreseeable future, the Treasury Department will need to issue a growing volume of securities. As issuance rises, investors are left to absorb more duration risk, which typically requires a higher term premium. Viewed through that lens, the solution will not come from adjusting the maturity mix of Treasury issuance, but rather from reducing the overall debt burden through fiscal consolidation.

Turning to the real economy, few sectors have felt the impact of higher rates more acutely than housing. Data released this week reinforced that point, with housing starts falling 12.4% m/m to 1.2 million units—their second-lowest level outside the pandemic since March 2019. The deterioration was broad based, with declines across both single- and multifamily segments. Looking through the month-to-month volatility, homebuilding activity has effectively moved sideways since 2023 (Chart 2).

At this point, relief from lower policy rates looks unlikely. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting underscored policymakers’ growing concern over persistently elevated inflation. The minutes noted that “many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline,” while “some” viewed the recent tightening in financial conditions as insufficient to restore price stability. Admittedly, CPI data released after the July 28–29 FOMC meeting showed some further cooling in price pressures. But that may already feel somewhat backward-looking amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. WTI prices traded 5% higher this week and are now sitting at a four-week high of $86/bbl. More concerning is the growing tightness in refined product markets, particularly diesel and jet fuel. While Chair Warsh may touch on these developments in next week’s Jackson Hole speech, the focus is likely to lean more toward the “big questions” facing monetary policy than a near-term policy discussion. Without additional guidance, markets’ risk being left underwhelmed, potentially adding further upward pressure on longer-term yields.

The first week of August kicked off with stocks hitting fresh all-time highs as oil prices retreated on news of a potential near-term deal to restart transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal is reportedly being negotiated between Oman and Iran, but a formal agreement between all parties has yet to be announced as of the time of writing. The S&P 500 rose 3.5% on the week as oil prices fell by 10% and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended the week roughly 10 basis points lower.

Higher oil prices have contributed to stronger nominal manufacturing activity in 2026, while also helping to push the ISM Manufacturing PMI to a four-year high in July. However, there are reasons to view the survey’s strength with some caution. The ISM Prices Paid Index remains near a four-year high (Chart 1), indicating elevated input cost pressures across the manufacturing sector. At the same time, a portion of the improvement in the headline PMI reflects slower supplier deliveries, which the survey interprets as a sign of stronger demand, but can also be consistent with supply-chain constraints. Taken together, the survey continues to point to an expansion in manufacturing activity, though likely at a more moderate pace than implied by the headline reading.

The larger services sector also continued to expand in July according to the ISM report, with new orders and business activity both picking up. However, the report was more concerning for the Federal Reserve, as the employment index slipped back into contraction territory and the prices paid index remained elevated.

This concern was somewhat enhanced by the headline report for July employment, which showed a loss of 23k jobs. However, looking into the details, the decline was entirely driven by an outsized loss in local government educational services. This is likely driven by unaccounted for seasonality coinciding with the summer break for schools. The private sector added 30k jobs during the month, on par with the prior month trend (Chart 2). In addition, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%, consistent with a labor market that is steady overall.

Taken together, the Federal Reserve is faced with an economy that has a stable labor market, but persistent excess inflationary pressures. Among the three voting members of the FOMC that we heard from this week, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari was the most vocal in support of policy tightening, noting he dissented in favor of a rate hike at the July meeting. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson and Governor Lisa Cook were more measured but noted that persistent inflation could require higher rates. After the employment report, odds of rate hike in September fell from roughly 50/50 to 60% odds for no hike.

With elevated uncertainty over what policy decision will be made by the Federal Reserve at their next meeting, next week’s CPI print for July is likely to be closely monitored. Consensus expectations are for an acceleration in total inflation to 3.5% year-on-year, consistent with the uptick in energy prices during the month. Currently we don’t expect a rate hike in September, but if current inflation trends prove persistent, then policy action may be required.

Financial markets had plenty to digest this week, with mega-cap tech earnings, the FOMC decision, and the second-quarter GDP. Equities swung sharply as investors weighed technology earnings against renewed scrutiny over AI-related capital spending and China’s progress in AI capabilities and semiconductor manufacturing. Still, stronger-than-expected results from several technology heavyweights helped revive the sentiment toward the end of the week. Oil prices also were in focus, with WTI crude easing relative to last week’s highs, but remained elevated at around US$85 per barrel Friday morning. Against that backdrop, investors have turned their attention to the Fed, where growing concern about inflation and rising doubts over the Committee’s willingness to do what is necessary to restore price stability pushed longer-term Treasury yields sharply higher.

The FOMC meeting was the week’s marquee event, though the main surprise was in the vote and not the policy announcement. Three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, highlighting growing concern within the Committee about inflation risks. The data support that concern. While inflation eased modestly in June, the improvement is unlikely to last if energy prices remain elevated. Core PCE inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years, and the Fed is still searching for the back of the net. So even as Chair Warsh reiterated that the Committee would not “waver” in its commitment to restoring price stability, financial markets grew uneasy about the Fed’s willingness to raise rates to bring inflation back to target. 30-Year Treasury yields rose sharply following the meeting and remain near a 19-year high (Chart 1).

Despite the market jitters, the incoming data still point to an economy with solid underlying momentum. Real GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace in the second quarter from 2.1% previously, but the softer headline largely reflected a surge in imports, with net trade subtracting roughly one percentage point from growth.

Under the hood, the economy’s engine was running considerably hotter than the headline GDP figure suggested, supported by a rebound in consumer spending and robust business investment (Chart 2). Consumer spending rebounded by a solid 3.2% annualized after a weather-affected first quarter. However, spending continued to outpace income, pushing the personal saving rate to its lowest level since mid-2022. With the boost from larger tax refunds fading, consumer resilience will increasingly depend on labor market strength and rising household wealth. Business investment also remained a bright spot. AI-related investment remained robust, but it was no longer the only game in town. Spending on industrial equipment surged 29% annualized in the second quarter, adding to evidence that the current capital spending cycle is becoming more broad-based.

Next week’s ISM surveys and the July employment report will shed further light on the balance of risks to prices and employment. For now, resilient domestic demand and persistent inflation pressures suggest the Fed’s inflation fight is entering overtime, with markets seeking reassurance that policymakers can credibly bring inflation back to target.

Despite a relatively busy week on the economic data calendar, market attention remained focused on renewed tensions in the Middle East. Earlier in the week, Iranian forces attacked multiple oil vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. to resume strikes on various military targets across Iran and reimpose its naval blockade. Tanker traffic through the vital passageway has again come to a halt, pushing WTI prices back above $80 per barrel.

The renewed upward pressure on oil prices helped to temper the market response to an otherwise very encouraging inflation report. Headline CPI declined by 0.4% m/m in June – it’s first pullback since June 2024 and largest since April 2020 – pushing the 12-month change down to 3.5% (see commentary). A sharp drop in gasoline prices was largely responsible for last month’s decline, though even after removing these effects there were plenty of positive developments. Core inflation was flat for the month, as both goods and services were little changed (Chart 1). Importantly, many of the categories where tariffs had been adding to price pressures over the past year, including appliances, medical goods and apparel were all lower on the month – suggesting the worst of the tariff passthrough is now in the rearview mirror. Also encouraging was the fact that there was little evidence of higher energy prices bleeding into core inflation.

The disinflationary dynamics were further reinforced by a soft producer price index reading, which helped to remove speculation of a Fed rate hike later this month. That said, Fed futures are still priced for a little more than one rate hike by year-end, as the U-turn in oil prices is already raising concerns on the durability of the disinflationary dynamics.

Retail sales for the month of June provided further confirmation that households continue to shrug off the effects of higher energy prices (Chart 2). While the headline figure posted only a modest gain, that was partly related to a sharp drop in nominal sales at gasoline stations –owing to price effects (see commentary). Focusing on the control group, which removes volatile categories, it showed a much healthier gain in spending while revisions to the prior month were a bit higher. This reinforces the view that consumer spending regained some momentum in Q2, after sputtering in Q1. However, the spend dynamics remain K-shaped, with lower-and-middle income consumers increasingly price sensitive and hesitant to spend on discretionary items – something that was highlighted in this week’s Fed Beige Book.

Anyone hoping that Fed Chair Warsh would relent and provide some forward guidance during his first Congressional testimony this week was sorrily disappointed. Instead, Warsh restated the Committee’s unwavering commitment to return price stability, but provided no hints on the Fed’s next move. Several other policymakers spoke this week and perhaps the biggest takeaway is that while all were encouraged by last month’s softer inflation figures, one data point does not make a trend. Several more months of easing inflation will be required to convince officials that price pressures are moving in the right direction. If this were to occur, expectations for rate hikes should fade, leading to some downward pressure on yields.

The first week of summer was relatively quiet on the economic data front, with financial markets consumed by developments in the Middle East and evolving trends in AI. The latter proved to be a source of volatility in equity markets this week, as news of personnel changes at Alphabet led to a sell-off that spread to the broader AI ecosystem. This was partially reversed later in the week, but still highlights the inherent sensitivity of markets under the combined influence of elevated valuations and market concentration. The S&P 500 was down 1.8% while U.S. Treasury yields moved modestly lower on the week as of the time of writing.

On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continued after the two sides signed a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) last week. The cessation of hostilities and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have been enthusiastically welcomed by financial markers, with oil prices now back at their pre-conflict level. However, it bears repeating that the resumption of oil trade through the vital passageway is likely to be a gradual process as evidenced by the current level of maritime traffic through the strait (Chart 1). Combined with the possibility for roadblocks to be encountered during negotiations, risks related to oil prices remain skewed to the upside.

The feedthrough of higher energy prices to the economy was evident in the PCE inflation reading for May. Prices were 4.1% higher year-on-year (y/y) during the month, primarily driven by a 24% increase in energy prices. However, broader inflation pressures were also present, with core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy products, rising 3.4% y/y. With energy prices having sharply reversed, some downward pressure on overall inflation is already in-tow. However, uncertainty around the magnitude and duration of energy-related second-order effects has given policymakers reason to adopt a more hawkish stance.

Personal income and spending both rebounded in real (price-adjusted) terms in May after softer readings in April, reflecting the sustained resilience of the American consumer. Still, much of the spending in recent months has been driven by a drawdown in savings, with the savings rate remaining at 3% in May – far below its historical average of 5-6%. While robust financial returns over the past few years may be offsetting the extent to which consumers need to save to meet their financial goals, the downward trend in the savings rate also began in mid-2025, coinciding with the introduction of broad tariffs and likely reflective of the multitude of cost pressures that have weighed on consumers over the past year (Chart 2).

Looking ahead to next week, the June employment data release on Thursday will be the highlight. Markets currently expect 118k new jobs to have been created during the month, marking a moderate deceleration relative to the strong reading in May. Fed Chair Warsh will also participate in a panel discussion next Wednesday, which will be watched closely for any signals on monetary policy decisions over the second half of the year.

Andrew Foran, Economist | 416-350-8927

Middle East tensions spiked and then eased again this week, with President Trump threatening new strikes on Iran and then calling them off as he noted progress toward a deal. WTI oil prices, which had been holding near $90/barrel, fell sharply toward $85/barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield also dipped initially, reflecting hopes that a resolution to the conflict would limit the energy shock’s spillover into broader inflation expectations, but recovered some lost ground later in the week as investors digested another firm inflation report.

The May CPI report was the clearest evidence that inflation pressures continue to build. Headline inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in three years - 4.2% year-on-year (Chart 1). Higher energy costs accounted for the bulk of that increase. The gain in core inflation was more contained, but the annual rate still moved further above target (2.9% y/y), adding support to a “higher for longer” policy stance (see here). Sifting through the details, shelter cooled after April’s outsized gain and core goods prices slipped, but non-housing services remained firm.

Inflation pressure was also evident in the NFIB small business survey, where a growing share of firms reported that they had raised average selling prices and that they planned further increases in the months ahead. This supports the view that higher energy and input costs are starting to ripple beyond the pump.

Housing offered a modest reprieve from the sour inflation news. Existing home sales rose a solid 3.2% in May to the highest level since December. Still, little has changed in the broader picture, with activity hovering near the 4-million mark for the third consecutive year and home price growth remaining in the slow lane.

Labor market signals, meanwhile, were mixed. Initial jobless claims ticked higher for the third week in a row but remained broadly range-bound, while continuing claims are still low by historical standards. Signals out of the small business survey, however, were less reassuring on this front. Small businesses are pointing to slower job creation ahead, with job openings and hiring plans softening recently amid an increase in inflation concerns (Chart 2).

All told, the effects of the Middle East conflict continue to show up in the data, and this is becoming harder for the Fed to ignore. Our view is that core inflation will likely remain elevated through year-end, supporting the case for an extended Fed pause. Next week marks Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Chair. Markets will be watching not only for a clear rate signal, but also for clues on how he intends to communicate. Warsh has indicated a preference for a shift in communication strategy, like potentially not holding a press conference after every Fed meeting. We expect the committee to telegraph a “higher for longer” policy stance in its updated Summary of Economic Projections, which had reflected 25 bps of easing this year and next. It is also likely to drop its easing bias in the statement. This expected shift would move the Fed closer to market pricing, which now reflects a toss-up between “no action” and a 25-bps hike by year-end.

Admir Kolaj, Economist | 416-944-6318

It’s been three months since the U.S. and Israel launched the initial attack on Iran. Hopes for a longer-term peace resolution rose this week following President Trump’s comments that a peace deal had been “largely negotiated”. Oil prices fell sharply on the news, though renewed attacks from both sides by mid-week briefly faded the optimism. But by Thursday evening, news outlines were reporting that the two sides had reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, pending President Trump’s approval. Oil prices traded 9% lower on the week and the WTI benchmark currently sits at $88 per barrel. Meanwhile, economic data out this week reinforced a more cautious but still resilient consumer amid renewed inflationary pressures. The S&P 500 edged 1.3% higher on the week, while the 10-Year Treasury yield drifted lower by 12 basis points and currently sits at 4.44%.

This week’s release of the April personal income & spending data offered a fresh dose of reality on the pain being inflicted on American households because of the energy shock. PCE inflation rose to a three-year high of 3.8% year-on-year and is likely to push north of 4% in May alongside a continued rise in gasoline prices. The picture didn’t look much better once the effects of food & energy were removed, with core PCE inflation edging up to 3.3%. Three-and-six-month measures are even hotter, each up 3.8% (Chart 1).

Despite the rise in inflation, the consumer has remained reasonably resilient. Nominal spending rose 0.5% m/m in April, following a stronger gain of 1% in March. After accounting for inflation, April’s gain looked less stellar, but still edged higher by 0.1% m/m. Hotter inflation is also working to erode consumer purchasing power, with real disposable income declining for a third consecutive month. This has left households increasingly reliant on savings to fuel spending. But with the savings rate having slipped to a four-year low, the buffer is looking increasingly thin.

According to a recent survey conducted by the Conference Board, households are reporting softer spending intentions in the months ahead. Fewer households are planning to purchase big-ticket items while two-thirds of consumers plan to reduce overall spending due to higher prices. While the survey metrics have been a less reliable predictor of actual spending post-pandemic, we can’t completely disregard the signal. The energy shock has further strained affordability for lower-and-middle income households, who have not benefited to the same degree from past year’s gains in home and equity prices.

And there’s an increasing risk that affordability pressures could worsen if the energy shock is sustained much longer. A growing chorus of Fed officials are sounding increasingly hawkish amid rising inflationary pressures. Board member Lisa Cook said this week that if disinflation doesn’t soon resume, she would be “prepared to raise rates”. Meanwhile, Fed President Kashkari reiterated that the inflation fight takes priority as the labor market now appears to be in decent shape. This suggests next week’s employment report will play second fiddle to the May CPI numbers due on June 10th. Fed futures are now 60% priced for a rate hike by year-end, but a hotter inflation report could pull forward expectations for a rate hike.

Thomas Feltmate, Director & Senior Economist | 416-944-5730

The changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve was formalized this week, as Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as Powell’s successor on Wednesday. This means Jerome Powell’s eight-year term as Chairman came to an end on Friday. Warsh takes the helm at a time when inflation pressures are rising sharply on the back of elevated global energy prices. Details on a potential resolution to the conflict in Iran remained elusive this week, which led to a 9% uptick in WTI oil prices. Equity markets were roughly unchanged on the week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2%, as U.S. Treasury yields spiked by roughly 20 basis points, reflecting stronger inflation readings.

In terms of economic data releases, the inflation data for April was the biggest news item. Headline CPI hit a three-year high of 3.8% year-on-year (y/y), on the back of rising energy prices (Chart 1). Stripping out energy and food products, core CPI accelerated for a second consecutive month to 2.7% y/y, partly owing to the feedthrough of energy prices to categories like airline fares. Broad-based passthrough to non-energy categories was absent from the report, but with energy prices rising through early May, subsequent reports may be less benign, particularly if no resolution is reached over the near-term.

Upstream, the influence of higher energy prices was similarly evident for producers in April, with the Producer Price Index up 6% y/y. Selling price pressures have not been this elevated since late 2022, as global supply chain disruptions have begun to converge with those seen during the initial aftermath of the pandemic (Chart 2). The impacts of these developments on businesses, and the follow-through to consumers, will be monitored closely by the Federal Reserve.

To that end, the April retail sales report provided an early snapshot of consumer health. It showed a solid gain of 0.5% month-on-month in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation, sales fell 0.2%. This likely reflected, in part, the comparable contraction in real earnings during the month, which, if sustained, would continue to weigh on consumption going forward. A near-term resolution to the Iran conflict would help ease some of this pressure, although the effects would likely be gradual as supply disruptions take time to fully unwind. Taken together, these crosscurrents leave the near-term policy outlook highly dependent on incoming inflation data.

Against this backdrop, Fed officials in public remarks this week flagged concerns about the inflation reports. Several officials, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Boston Fed President Collins, noted that tighter financial conditions may be required to quell emerging inflationary pressures. The balance of opinion among officials emphasized that a neutral stance would be appropriate over the near term to allow time to assess incoming data. As of the time of writing, financial market pricing for a rate hike by year-end has risen to 40%.

Andrew Foran, Economist | 416-350-8927

U.S. financial markets remained firm this week. The S&P 500 advanced roughly 2% to new record highs, supported by a pullback in oil prices and a better-than-expected jobs report. Long-term Treasury yields eased later in the week, with the 10-year note hovering near 4.35% – a hair below last week’s close. Market pricing continues to reflect limited expectations for near-term rate cuts amid ongoing energy market uncertainty and a relatively resilient economy.

Resiliency was on display in the April jobs report, where nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 – almost double the market consensus forecast. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% amid modest declines in both household employment and the labour force. Payrolls were volatile through the first quarter, due in part to factors like inclement weather and a healthcare strike in California. Looking through the volatility, it appears that job growth has picked up from its anemic trend at the end of last year and is now running at a decent pace that’s allowing it to hold the unemployment rate steady (Chart 1). High-frequency indicators reinforced this resilient labour market picture: initial jobless claims remained very low by historical standards, while continuing claims fell to 1.77 million – a new two-year low.

Other economic data lent further support to the resilience theme. The ISM Services Index eased modestly in April but remained comfortably above the 50-point expansion threshold. The details of the report, however, had a few blemishes. New orders recorded a notable pullback, while the prices-paid component remained elevated at 70.7 – the highest level since late 2022 and up notably from earlier this year – pointing to persistent cost pressures in the services sector.

With respect to prices, the good news is that the price of WTI crude oil, which had surged above $105/barrel late last week, fell back to the mid-$90s over the course of this week (Chart 2). This followed reports of U.S.–Iran negotiations and tentative de-escalation signals around the Strait of Hormuz. While constructive for inflation expectations, sustained disinflation will depend on a more durable resolution to the tensions

These developments are likely front-of-mind for Fed Chair-nominee Kevin Warsh as he prepares to take the helm. Communication from the Fed this week maintained a cautious stance, with New York Fed President John Williams emphasizing that policy is “well positioned” to balance the risks to the dual mandate. Under the current backdrop, market odds remain strongly in favor of no Fed action over the near term, with the probability that rates are held steady this year still sitting at over 70%. Ultimately, this morning’s better-than-expected jobs report, alongside other high-frequency indicators, helps ease concerns that the U.S. labour market has continued to deteriorate. This should give policymakers more breathing room to assess the extent to which higher energy prices filter into core inflation over the coming months.

Admir Kolaj, Economist | 416-944-6318

U.S. equity markets shrugged off escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and instead focused on this week’s upbeat earnings releases and signs of a still resilient U.S. economy. Further gains in the S&P 500 capped off what has been an impressive run through the month of April, with the index rising +10% m/m – its strongest performance since April 2020. The gain in equities came despite the price of oil moving back above $100 per-barrel (WTI benchmark) on reports that President Trump told aides to prepare for an extended blockade. Meanwhile, Treasury yields across the curve climbed a bit higher, as hawkish undertones in the Fed’s policy statement erased hopes of rate cuts later this year. The 10-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.38%, while Fed futures are now showing a one-in-three chance of a rate hike by April 2027.

At the onset of the Middle East conflict, we argued that the economic impact from higher oil prices is likely to be relatively small. In large part, that was because of structural factors like the U.S. being less energy intensive and a net exporter of energy products. But we also noted that the shock was hitting the economy from a point of strength, and that was evident in this week’s reading of Q1 GDP. The economy expanded by a respectable 2%, with business investment remaining a bright spot. AI was a significant driver underpinning investment growth, though there was also evidence of some broadening to more traditional areas (Chart 1). The AI spending splurge looks to have legs, with Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft all raising guidance for 2026 planned expenditures this week. Cumulative capex by the “Magnificent 7” is now estimated to be $725 billion – a significant increase from 2025’s ~$375 billion.

Meanwhile, consumer spending was a soft spot in Q1, though some of the weakness appears transitory. The quarter got off to a rough start, as Winter Storm Fern caused major disruptions across most of the U.S. Encouragingly, the spending figures picked up as the quarter progressed, with March’s gain the strongest in fifteen months… in nominal terms. After adjusting for the sharp jump in inflation – partly due to the surge in energy prices – the gain appeared more modest. But it wasn’t only energy prices holding up inflation. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – rose 3.2% yr/yr in March, or its fastest rate of growth in over two years (Chart 2).

Rising inflationary pressures have made the FOMC more cautious on the rate outlook, with three Fed officials voting to remove the rate-cutting bias in the policy statement. The shifting sentiment comes at an interesting time for the Fed. This week’s press conference likely marked Powell’s last as chair, with Kevin Warsh expected to be in-seat for the next meeting following his nomination clearing the Senate Banking Committee earlier this week. But Powell noted at the press conference that he plans to stay on the board until the DOJ investigation is “truly over with transparency and finality”. Ultimately, this leaves the composition of the FOMC unchanged, as Warsh will fill the seat of President Trump’s appointee Stephen Miran, leaving little hope that the new Fed chair will be able to deliver on immediate rate cuts.

Thomas Feltmate, Director & Senior Economist | 416-944-5730