Financial News & Insights

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK  For the second week in a row, action on Chinese import tariffs dominated the economic news, but markets remained positive overall, likely reflecting relief that oil prices have come off their recent highs. Since China retaliated to the first salvo of U.S. tarif

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK A holiday-shortened week was nevertheless chock-full of data releases that confirmed the U.S. economy continues to expand at a strong above-trend pace. Economic activity remains robust, but there are signs that trade uncertainty may be impeding further improveme

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK The BEA’s third estimate of Q1 real GDP downgraded growth slightly to 2.0%, from 2.2% previously. May data did show flat real personal spending, but strength in March and April still set Q2 consumption up for a decent rebound. The Fed’s preferred measure of infl

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK The U.S. economy is barreling ahead with more momentum than we had expected. Our latest forecast upgrades real GDP growth to 3.0% in 2018, from 2.7% in March. 3% is difficult to sustain over the medium term. As the fiscal boost fades, higher interest rates weigh

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK The FOMC raised the fed funds target rate by 25 bp this week. Additionally, median expectations for the fed funds target rose to 2.4% (from 2.1%), suggesting that the committee was leaning toward two more rate hikes this year. Data corroborated the Fed’s hawkish

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK Next week the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet for the fourth time this year to discuss whether the current level of monetary stimulus is appropriate for the U.S. economy. Well above-trend economic growth and inflation at target should be enough to

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK Fears of fresh elections in Italy spooked investors, who unloaded Italian bonds – sending yields on short-term government debt skyrocketing. By the end of the week, Italy’s populist coalition was finally allowed to form a government. But far from closure, this l

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK U.S. trade tensions with China have temporarily subsided, however they have flared up elsewhere, as President Trump ordered a review of U.S. automotive imports. Trade tensions were also flagged as a key risk in the latest FOMC minutes. However, the Committee rem

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK Equity markets were buffeted by plenty of anxiety-producing events from uncertainty on trade negotiations to right wing coalitions in Italy. Americans may also be a bit nervous about higher prices, both at the pump and for borrowing. The rise in oil prices is ex

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK Domestic equity markets shrugged off news that the U.S. administration is pulling out of the current Iran deal while leaving the door open to renegotiation. WTI oil rose for a fifth consecutive week. Rising U.S. gasoline prices helped drive headline inflation to