Financial News for the Week of February 9th, 2023
Financial News Highlights
- Since last Friday’s blockbuster employment report, market pricing on the peak fed funds rate has firmed to 5.25%. This aligns to the FOMC’s December projections, though markets still foresee the Fed cutting rates later this year.
- At an event on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell did not pushback against investors’ diverging view, nor was his tone any more hawkish, despite last week’s strong reading on employment.
- With the FOMC now in the “fine turning” stage of the tightening cycle, policymakers have become increasingly data dependent. This means next week’s inflation report will be under the microscope.
Holding the Line… For Now
It was a very quiet week on the economic data calendar, giving investors a bit more time to digest last week’s blockbuster employment numbers in financial news. Since the jobs report, market pricing on the future path of the fed funds rate has firmed, with investors now anticipating two more 25 basis-point hikes by May, bringing the terminal rate to 5.25%. This aligns to FOMC’s last forecast outlined in the December Summary of Economic Projections. In contrast, markets differ from the Fed on the timing of rate cuts, with interest rate cuts priced in by financial markets for later this year, whereas the Fed doesn’t foresee that happening until 2024.
At an event on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell did not pushback against the markets’ diverging view. Instead, he reiterated many of the same themes that he had emphasized in the press conference following last week’s interest rate announcement. The key message being that while the disinflationary process has begun, it remains very much in the early stages, and it will take “considerable time” before inflation returns to 2%. While financial markets initially rallied on the remarks, they later sold-off through the back-half of the week. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is down 2%, while the 10-year Treasury edged higher by 15bps to 3.7% for the week.
When asked specifically about last week’s employment numbers, Powell said that it, “simply reaffirmed that the central bank has some way to go on raising rates” and that the strong numbers highlight that the adjustment process is unlikely to be linear. While there’s certainly validity to that argument, there’s also reason to believe that the January payrolls may be overstating the degree of strength in the labor market.
For starters, January was unseasonably warm across most of the U.S., which likely means there was a pull forward of economic activity. From that perspective, some of January’s gains may have been robbed from subsequent months – suggesting much weaker employment growth in the months ahead. Second, seasonal adjustment factors may have also played some role in biasing last month’s numbers higher. January is historically a month where non-seasonally adjusted payrolls record a massive decline in absolute terms (Chart 1). While this remained true last month, it did so by the smallest amount since 1995. This likely translated to an outsized gain in the seasonally adjusted figures.

Thomas Feltmate, Director | 416-944-5730
This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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Financial News for the Week of February 3rd, 2023
Financial News Highlights
- The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate 25 basis-points, a step down from six consecutive hikes of 50 or 75 bps.
- Non-farm payrolls accelerated in January for the first time in five months, adding 517k jobs and nearly tripling market expectations.
- The ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, with new orders declining at an accelerating rate, while the ISM Services Index returned to strong growth after contracting in December.
Until the Job Is Done
With the first month of 2023 in the books, the start of February was marked by the much anticipated (but widely expected) rate decision delivered by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday in major financial news. Coupled with a sizeable upside surprise in the January employment data on Friday, markets certainly had a lot to think about this week. The S&P 500 rose 2.6% for the week, while the ten-year Treasury yield was little changed at 3.5% as of the time of writing.
Labor markets began 2023 with a bang, breaking a five-month deceleration trend and adding 517k jobs (Chart 1). This brought the unemployment rate down by 0.1 percentage points (ppts) to a 53-year low of 3.4%. In addition, revisions to 2022 data added 311k jobs to last year’s tally. The labor force participation rate in January ticked up by 0.1 ppts to 62.4%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) and hours worked increased by 0.9% m/m. On aggregate, this was an exceptionally strong jobs report, which when combined with the sustained downward trend in initial jobless claims and the increase in December job openings, will give the Federal Reserve plenty to contemplate over the coming weeks.
In contrast to the strong labor market data, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped further into contractionary territory in January, dropping 1 percentage point to 47.4 – its lowest level since May 2020. Economic activity in the sector contracted for the third consecutive month, as new orders continued to decline at an accelerating rate. This contrasts with the ISM Services PMI which showed the industry return to strong growth in January after briefly contracting in December, with new orders jumping up by 15.2 percentage points. While there have been positive developments in the manufacturing sector, such as reduced delivery times and lower price pressures, the robustness of the strength in the services sector will be a concern for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to put a lid on services price growth.

Markets expect another 25bps hike at the Fed’s next meeting in six weeks, at which time we will also receive an update on the Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections. The January employment report introduced fresh uncertainty to market expectations for the terminal rate, with May meeting expectations now evenly split between no change and a 25bps hike. Powell is in the hot seat in a Q&A next Tuesday, where he is likely to be pressed on his reading of the January jobs blowout. He is likely to confirm the hawkish bias of the press conference, and markets will be listening carefully for any hints of how high the Fed expects to raise rates now.
Andrew Foran, Economist | 416-350-8927
This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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Financial News for the Week of January 20th, 2023
Financial News Highlights
- Markets finished the week lower on weaker economic data and rising political risks.
- December retail sales registered the biggest monthly decline in 2022, finishing the fourth quarter flat. Housing starts were down less than expected, driven by the volatile multifamily component. Existing home sales continued to soften.
- This week’s Fed speakers demonstrated a varying degree of hawkishness on the pace of upcoming rate hikes. Yet, markets are all but priced-in a 25-basis point increase.
Bad News is Bad News
The week started with a holiday, but that didn’t stop markets from feeling the blues of the most depressing period in the Northern Hemisphere in financial news. At the time of writing, equities are down almost 2% on the week. On the political front, concerns about the government’s ability to pay its debts resurfaced as the Treasury Department was forced to begin taking ‘extraordinary measures’ in order to keep paying the government’s bills. By suspending certain additional investments, the Treasury buys Congress more time – likely until June - to negotiate a resolution on how to increase the debt ceiling. With the deadline still several months out, investors’ focus was squarely on the economic data. Unfortunately, there was little to cheer about.
Retail sales came in weaker than expected – falling 1.1% m/m - and marking the second consecutive month of declines. Most major categories were weak in both nominal and inflation adjusted terms. The only group that showed stronger demand was sales at gas stations, where real sales rose five percentage points on a sizeable drop in gas prices (Chart 1). The message is clear: consumers are becoming increasingly more cautious in allocating their income and pandemic savings. Moreover, judging by sales at restaurant and bars, demand for services might also be nearing an inflection point. The soft reading on retail sales led us to adjust our expectations for Q4 consumer spending down to a still robust 2.7% (previously 3.3%).
Housing activity also ended 2022 on a soft note. Residential construction declined for the fourth consecutive month, but by less than expected in December. The decline was attributed to a 19% drop in the multi-family segment. In contrast, starts in the single-family, rose for the first time in four months, but are likely to decelerate further in the months ahead as permits continue to trend lower (Chart 2).

Increasingly bold signs of cooling economic activity are welcome news for the Fed on its mission to bring down inflation. That said, this week’s Fed speakers had varying degrees of hawkishness on the pace of upcoming rate hikes. Of those who have the voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee, James Bullard sounded most hawkish by expressing his preference to “err on the tighter side to get the disinflationary process to take hold”.
In contrast, Fed’s Lorie Logan and Patrick Harker voiced their support for a 25-basis point hike, while Vice Chair Lael Brainard, without explicitly backing a softer pace, emphasized the possibility of a soft lending - easing in the labor market and reduction in inflation without a significant loss of employment in further financial news. Markets side with this view, having priced-in a quarter-of-a percent hike on February 1st with a 97% probability. Compare it to exactly one month ago, when only 70% of market participants (including yours truly) expected a downshift. Seemingly, investors express more certainty about an economic slowdown ahead.
Maria Solovieva, CFA, Economist | 416-380-1195
This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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Featured Article: 401k and Retirement Changes
The 401(k) and IRA Changes to Consider After Congress Revised Many Retirement Laws
New policies for retirement saving would go into effect immediately or in the New Year
Americans will need to rethink how they save after Congress passed a series of laws that stand to overhaul parts of the country’s retirement saving system.
The retirement overhaul is part of a larger bill passed by Congress just before the holidays. It includes dozens of retirement policy changes that go into effect over the next decade. Many of these provisions kick in immediately after the bill passes, however, creating the need for Americans to examine their own financial planning now, financial advisers say.
The main changes that go into effect right away include incentives for more employers to offer retirement plans and to encourage workers to contribute, and new rules on taking money out and getting lifetime payouts.
Here’s a rundown of the key changes and what you might need to do:
New Rules for Taking Money Out
Required Minimum Distributions. The new legislation raises the age taxpayers generally have to start taking required minimum distributions, known as RMDs, from their retirement accounts to 73 from 72, starting in 2023. That means if you turned 72 in 2022, you have until April 1, 2023, to take your first RMD, the one for 2022, and you’ll have to take another for 2023 by Dec. 31, 2023. If you turn 72 in 2023, your first RMD will be for 2024, the year you turn 73, due on April 1, 2025.
The legislation doesn’t do anything to address the confusion surrounding the new 10-year payout rule for IRAs inherited after 2019.
Missed RMD penalty relief. Congress is reducing the 50% penalty for missed RMDs to 25% of the amount that should have been withdrawn. The penalty drops to 10% if it is corrected in a timely manner.
New exceptions to the 10% early withdrawal penalty. Typically, there’s a 10% penalty if you withdraw money from 401(k)s or other pretax retirement accounts before age 59 ½. The new legislation enhances several existing exceptions, including covering certain private-sector firefighters and public safety officers. It also adds new categories, allowing individuals who are terminally ill to make limited penalty-free withdrawals.
A catchall exception allowing anyone with a personal or family emergency to withdraw up to $1,000 a year penalty-free kicks in for 2024. A penalty exception for those affected by federally declared disasters is retroactive to Jan. 26, 2021. There are also exceptions for victims of domestic abuse and payment of long-term-care premiums.
New Rules to Encourage Savings
Small-employer retirement plan startup tax credit. If you work for a small employer with up to 50 employees that doesn’t offer a retirement plan, your company is eligible for an enhanced tax credit to start up a plan as of Jan. 1. The new credit covers 100% of initial costs up to $5,000 for three years, depending on the number of eligible employees. Employers with 51 to 100 employees get a lesser credit. There’s an additional credit if an employer also matches employee contributions, available for five years.
Solo 401(k)s. Under current law, self-employed individuals who want to establish an individual or solo 401(k) retirement plan have to set it up by Dec. 31 to make contributions for that year. Under the new provision, they have until they file their tax return the next year to open and fund the account, starting with the 2023 tax year.
$2,500 rainy day emergency savings accounts. The legislation allows employers to automatically enroll non-highly compensated employees, those who make up to $150,000 for 2023, in emergency savings accounts linked to a 401(k) plan. Employees could save up to $2,500, and withdrawals would be tax and penalty-free.
Gift cards. The legislation authorizes employers to hand out a small cash payment or gift card to encourage workers to sign up for and contribute to a 401(k)-type retirement plan. The idea is that some employees might respond to even a couple hundred dollars as a sign-up bonus, says Mark Iwry, a former Treasury Department official.
Roth employer matching. The new legislation permits employers to offer Roth matching contributions into an employee’s 401(k) account. Currently, employer match money goes into employee accounts on a pretax basis. Under the new rules, employees can now choose to take the Roth match, which means they are able to pay taxes up front and then later take out the contributions, and potentially the earnings, tax-free.
Lifetime Income Provisions
IRA Charitable Rollover. The legislation includes a provision that lets IRA owners who are 70 ½ or older take a one-time withdrawal of up to $50,000 to fund a charitable gift annuity or charitable remainder trust. That’s a tax win for IRA owners because the withdrawal doesn’t count as income, and it can count toward any required minimum distribution amount for the year.
They generally work like this: The IRA owner gets a minimum payout of 5% annually, taxed as ordinary income, and the charity gets what’s left when the donor dies. The only beneficiaries can be the owner alone or the owner and his or her spouse.
“Charities are going to be telling all their donors about this,” says Conrad Teitell, a tax lawyer in Stamford, Conn., who publishes Taxwise Giving. Effective date: Jan. 1, 2023.
Deferred annuities. For retirees looking for guaranteed income in their old age, the retirement legislation enables more people to take advantage of qualified longevity annuity contracts, known as QLACs, says Mr. Iwry, who spearheaded Treasury’s development of QLACs in 2014.
A QLAC is a deferred annuity that you can buy, say in your 60s, with guaranteed payouts for life starting at age 80 or 85, for example. Under the new rules, 401(k) participants or IRA owners could use up to $200,000 from their account to buy the annuity that would make guaranteed payments for life. Current rules limit the QLAC amount to $145,000 or 25% of the retirement account balance, if less.
“QLACs cover the tail risk of outliving your retirement savings,” Mr. Iwry says. Effective date: when the act is signed into law.
Write to Ashlea Ebeling at ashlea.ebeling@wsj.com
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Financial News for the Week of January 13th, 2023
Financial News Highlights
- After fifteen rounds of votes, Kevin McCarthy was elected the new House Speaker. However, it didn’t come without making major concessions, setting the stage for more political brinksmanship over the coming months.
- Headline inflation came in below expectations – falling 0.1% m/m. The core measure rose by 0.3% m/m, bring the 12-month change to 5.7% - the slowest pace of price growth in a year.
- Data out this week showed that labor market remains incredibly tight. The number of small businesses with unfilled job openings remains historically elevated while jobless claims have steadily trended lower over the last month.
Inflation Turning, But Victory Still Nowhere Insight

After last week’s payrolls report, investors were eager to see the December reading on U.S. CPI to better gauge the future path of the policy rate. Going into the week, most market participants expected a further downshift in the pace of rate hikes when the FOMC next meets in early-February. Inflation is (finally) moving in the right direction, solidifying market pricing for a 25-bps hike in financial news. Equities were up 2% on the week, while the U.S. 10Y fell by roughly 10-bps and currently sits at 3.45%
Headline inflation fell 0.1% m/m – a tick below expectations – with the pullback largely attributed to weaker gasoline prices (-9.4%). The core measure rose by 0.3% which brought the twelve-month change to “just” 5.7% – the slowest pace of growth in over a year. Even more encouraging was the steady downward trend in the three-month annualized change, which now sits at 3.1% (Chart 1).

Data out this week showed that while the number of small businesses reporting job openings are declining, they remain historically elevated (Chart 2). As a result, nearly half of small businesses surveyed reported having increased compensation in recent months, while more than a quarter are planning to boost wages over the next three months. Elsewhere, jobless claims continued to edge lower through the first week of January – falling to 205k – with the four-week moving average having steadily declined since late-November. Putting all this together suggests the labor market remains incredibly tight and has not yet reached an inflection point. So while inflation may be easing, the Fed is nowhere near declaring victory. We expect more tightening to come over the coming months – likely in the form of two 25-bps hikes – before pausing to assess the cumulative impact of all 475-bps of tightening.
Thomas Feltmate, Director | 416-944-5730
This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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Financial News for the Week of January 6th, 2023
Financial News Highlights
- The labor market cooled modestly in December, with 223k new jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking back
down to 3.5%. - The House of Representatives failed to elect a Speaker of the House on the first ballot for the first time in 100 years,
delaying the start of the new legislative session in the lower chamber of Congress. - FOMC minutes from the December meeting underlined the hawkish stance of the committee and warned of the
dangers of a pre-mature easing of financial conditions.
Plenty of Jobs, Except in Congress
The start of the new year kicked off with several important December data releases, including an update on the labor market and FOMC meeting minutes in financial news. In addition, the new Congressional session got off to a rocky start, with the House of Representatives unable to elect a Speaker of the House. Equity markets fluctuated on the week with the S&P 500 down 0.4% while yields declined sharply, with the 10 Year Treasury at 3.58% as of the time of writing.
The exceptional strength seen in the jobs market over the past two years slowed into the end of 2022, with December adding 223k new jobs and bringing the annual total to 4.5 million (Chart 1). The labor market remained tight with the unemployment rate declining back to 3.5% as the labor force rose by 0.3% and the participation rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage-points. Average hourly earnings growth decelerated to 0.3% month-on-month, inciting an initial rally in equity markets as participants looked for evidence which might lead to a reprieve from the current aggressive round of rate hikes. The report also showed a notable uptick in the number of multiple job holders reflecting the weight of inflation and rate hikes on households as they seek additional support through secondary incomes.
Earlier in the week, manufacturing data showed signs of further slowing, with the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipping further into contractionary territory in December (Chart 2). After two years of growth the industry has begun to give back some of its gains, in large part due to the direct and indirect effects of higher rates. We also saw this play a part in the ISM Services PMI which declined sharply and showed the sector contracting in December for the first time in 30 months. Within the services index, declines were led by new orders which dropped sharply by over 10.8 percentage-points relative to November. On a more positive note, the manufacturing report showed a continued decline in supply price pressures and improving delivery times, which will be welcome news for the Federal Reserve.

Minneapolis Fed President (and 2023 FOMC member) Neel Kashkari also released an essay on Wednesday in which he noted the need to raise rates by another 100bps this year, which helped to briefly push the odds of a 50bps hike in February close to 50%, though they have since declined back to roughly 25%. Next week we will get December CPI data which will help clarify whether the recent downturn in inflation persisted into the end of the year.
Andrew Foran, Economist | 416-350-8927
This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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Financial News for the Week of December 16th, 2022
Financial News Highlights
- The FOMC downshifted its tightening race in December, raising the policy rate by 50-bps, bringing the operating band to 4.25%-4.5%.
- The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections showed a less optimistic economic outlook, accompanied by higher inflation. The median consensus on the Fed Funds rate was lifted by 50-bps for 2023, implying a terminal rate of 5.25%.
- November inflation data showed a further softening in price pressures, with core CPI rising 0.2% m/m and the 12-month change falling to 6% y/y. Retail sales for November were weaker than expected (-0.6% m/m), recording its largest monthly decline in 11 months.
Slowing, But Not Stopping
Phew, whatta week for financial news! The headlines included further evidence of softening inflation, wanning consumer momentum and the much-anticipated December FOMC interest rate announcement. The Fed met market expectations, increasing the policy rate by “only” 50 basis-points (bps), bringing the upper-bound to 4.5%. That marked a slowdown from the 75-bps pace undertaken at the four prior meetings, but still stands as a historically fast pace of policy adjustment (Chart 1).
Beyond the interest rate announcement, the FOMC also released updated economic projections. Relative to the September assessment, Committee participants now expect growth to be considerably weaker in 2023 (0.5% vs 1.2%) and the unemployment rate slightly higher (4.6% vs. 4.4%). Despite the more downbeat outlook, policymakers view price pressures as having become more entrenched, and upgraded the inflation outlook through 2024. As a result, the FOMC signaled rates are likely to move at least 50-bps higher than previously expected next year – implying a terminal rate of 5.25% – with cuts not beginning until 2024.
In the press conference, Chair Powell struck a somewhat hawkish tone. When asked about the recent easing in financial market conditions, Powell stated that the Committee looks through near-term swings, but emphasized the importance of market conditions aligning to the Fed’s intentions. Moreover, Powell was quick to direct focus to the upward revision to the “dots”, reiterating that the Committee’s view on inflation remains skewed to the upside and thus future projections could still show an even higher terminal rate. Despite this deliberate signaling, market participants still believe that the Fed will begin cutting rates late next year.

Though the cumulative impact from higher rates hasn’t yet hit hiring intentions, November retail sales showed consumer momentum may be wanning. Sales fell 0.6% m/m – its biggest monthly drop in nearly a year – with notable declines in holiday categories including, electronics, clothing, and sporting goods. As we noted in our Quarterly Economic Forecast, it was unrealistic to assume the recent strength in spending would continue indefinitely. A broader demand adjustment needs to occur over the coming quarters in order to restore price stability. It would appear we are nearing the precipice of that adjustment.
Thomas Feltmate, Director | 416-944-5730
This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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Featured Article: The 5 Best Places to See an Untouched Winter Wonderland
The 5 Best Places to See an Untouched Winter Wonderland
There’s something undeniably magical about a pristine, snowy winter landscape. Smoke rising from chimneys, the Northern Lights dancing above you, hot cocoa warming your hands while snowflakes fall outside your window. From soaking in hot springs to ice skating under mesmerizing mountain peaks, we’ve gathered up the best places to see an untouched winter wonderland around the world. Bundle up, grab a warm beverage and come with us to these snowy destinations.
Lapland, Finland

The far northern reaches of Finland, known collectively as Lapland, are a remote winter landscape utterly untouched. The scattered residents who call this region home carve out snowmobile trails as the polar night engulfs them for two solid months of darkness.
This might be one of the best places in the world to cross the northern lights off your bucket list. Polar nights allow a longer window of time to witness them while crisp winter air makes for perfect viewing conditions. As an added bonus, you can pay Santa Claus himself a visit in the village of Rovaniemi, and pet some of his reindeers.
When the cold starts to seep into your bones, hole up in a traditional Finnish sauna. The tradition of hitting fellow sauna goers with Birch branches is said to increase circulation, helping you thaw from the extreme cold that can reach -40 degrees.
Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA

Winter is an ideal time for visiting Yellowstone National Park as crowds thin, geysers soar, and wildlife spotting becomes more likely. The contrast of bubbling hot springs and volcanic activity juxtaposed with the icy landscape creates an otherworldly effect that has to be seen to be believed.
There is no shortage of winter activities in America’s first national park including snowmobiling, snowshoeing, and cross-country skiing. If you’re feeling up for a splurge, organize a snowcoach for a frozen safari through the desolate landscape. These methods of transportation are some of your only options after the first week of November. Roads don’t open again until the end of April so be sure to plan around travel restrictions. At the end of your trip, head to Mammoth Hot Springs at the northern edge of Yellowstone to thaw out from your icy adventures.
Banff, Canada

Maybe one of the most picturesque places on our list, Banff is a stunning winter destination located in the heart of the Canadian Rockies. Visitors can enjoy ice skating with beautiful views of Lake Louise or a ride in the Banff gondola for sweeping panoramas of the wintery scenes below. If you’re lucky, Banff is another destination on this list where it’s possible to see the northern lights dance across the mountains. When conditions are right the best place to view them is at Lake Minnewanka, located about 10 minutes outside the city, with open sky views.
Chamonix, France

In the shadow of Mont Blanc, Chamonix is one of the premier destinations in Europe for winter sports. From extreme alpine skiing to dog sledding, there’s something for everyone in this frozen mecca.
If you’re feeling adventurous, take the Aiguille du Midi, to see the top of Mont Blanc. Here you can “Step Into the Void” by literally stepping out over a 1,000 foot drop covered by a glass atrium. Chamonix is also home to the largest glacier in France, Mer de Glace. The most scenic way to get there is aboard the Train du Montenvers with sweeping views of the Alps. After you’ve arrived, step inside the glacier itself in the Ice Cave or learn about global warming’s effect on the ice at the Glacorium. Afterwards Indulge in the local alpine cuisine raclette, melted cheese traditionally scraped over vegetables and meat, after a long day on the slopes.
Shirakawago, Japan

Japan is home to several cities with the highest snowfall records in the world. The island country’s unique geography causes ocean air to become trapped against the Japanese Alps resulting in huge snowfalls. Shirakawago sees 33 feet of snowfall on average in the winter months from December to March, making it one of Japan’s must-see winter wonderlands.
Shirakawago’s combination of extreme snowfall and unique cultural attributes caught the attention of UNESCO who designated it a World Heritage site. The idyllic Gassho-style houses that are nestled in the village of Ogimachi are built to withstand the extreme snowfall, giving them their unique look and architecture that allows snow to slide off the roof. Every year for six consecutive Sundays in January and February the village does an illumination ceremony, lighting up the iconic homes.
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Financial News for the Week of December 9th, 2022
Highlights
- Somewhat unexpectedly, the ISM services index accelerated in November, with the business activity sub-index expanding to a level last seen in 2021.
- The services sector continues to struggle with elevated inflation as the prices paid component of the ISM services index and the services side of the producer price index showed no signs of price relief.
- Despite higher rates, consumers continued to borrow to support their spending. This underscores the degree of resilience of the U.S. consumer but increases prospects for a weaker economy next year as the Fed will have to move into more restrictive territory.
Waiting for the Fed
A slow week on the economic data front gave markets time to reflect and prepare for the FOMC meeting next week, which will include an update to the Fed’s economic projections in financial news. The consensus has solidified for a 50-basis points (bps) hike, but the Wall Street jury is out on how far the Fed will have to raise policy rates this cycle. Price volatility this week underscores increasing concerns that higher policy rates could tip the U.S. economy into recession.
On Monday, the ISM Services index reported an acceleration in the services sector. Somewhat unexpectedly, the business activity sub-index expanded by whooping nine percentage points lifting it to a level last seen in 2021. This is in stark contrast with the manufacturing sector’s production index, which moved into contractionary territory. The pick-up in services activity was backed by remaining pent up demand, further boosted by the start to the holiday season as industries like Accommodation & Food Services and Retail Trade entered their busiest month of the year.
The prices sub-indexes reinforce the contrast between the two sectors. While the manufacturing sector has seen a significant deterioration in the prices paid component, which contracted in November with a reading of 43, it’s taking much longer for the services sector to see signs of price relief, with the sub-index remaining mired around 70 (Chart 1). Higher prices also appear to be broad-based with 16 out of 18 industries reporting higher prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November provided another example of the sectoral divergence in price pressures. The PPI advanced by 0.3% month-on-month in November, driven by a 0.4% increase rise in services prices.

Consumer demand has proven a bit more resilient recently, and it looks to have been supported by consumer credit, which continued to expand in October despite higher interest rates. Consumer credit outstanding increased by $27.0 billion on the month (7.1% annualized), driven by nonrevolving credit, which gained $17.0 billion (Chart 2). Revolving credit added $10.1 billion, reflecting consumers stronger reliance on credit card debt as pandemic savings continue to dwindle. We think that consumers will add more leverage to support real spending growth of roughly 1.5% in 2023 – a step down from 2.8% expected in 2022.
That forecast underscores the degree of resilience coming from the U.S. consumer, but the cumulative effect of higher interest rates may create stronger headwinds than currently anticipated. Stronger domestic demand and higher inflation increases prospects that the Fed will have to move rates into more restrictive territory. Wednesday’s FOMC decision will feature the dot plot, so we won’t have to wait much longer to see the Fed’s latest thinking.
Maria Solovieva, CFA, Economist | 416-380-1195
This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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Financial News for the Week of December 2nd, 2022
Financial News Highlights
- Employment rose by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) for the fourth consecutive month in November, surpassing expectations for a moderate slowdown in job growth.
- Core PCE inflation for October eased slightly to 5% year-on-year (y/y), but was supported by strong spending growth and a drop in the consumer savings rate to a 17-year low.
- FOMC Chair Powell noted in his speech on Wednesday that rate hikes may slow as early as December but reiterated that the Fed has a long way to go in restoring price stability.
U.S. - The Job Market Marches On
Markets had to hit the ground running after the Thanksgiving holiday, with a full slate of economic data and financial news. The November jobs report, personal income and spending data for October, and FOMC Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday were just the headliners. Markets rallied to start the week, but gains were pared back after the release of the November jobs report on Friday. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is up 0.3% on the week while the ten-year yield is down 10bps to 3.59%.
In November, the seemingly indomitable U.S. labor market recorded another strong rise in employment. Non-farm payrolls rose by 263k jobs, rising at a pace of 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) for the fourth consecutive month (Chart 1). The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, while the labor force declined slightly (-0.1% m/m). Average hourly earnings accelerated by 0.6% m/m, doubling market expectations.
Oil prices rose this week after Chinese officials eased up on their Zero-Covid messaging in the wake of wide-spread protests. With health protocols expected to be loosened heading into 2023, the prospect of renewed Chinese demand drove oil prices higher. Looking to next week, OPEC+ will have its bi-monthly meeting on Sunday after previously cutting production by 2 million barrels per day in October. The following day, the EU will implement its embargo on Russian oil. European officials also recently announced a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil, which they intend to implement in coordination with the G7 and Australia on the same day their embargo goes into effect. Overall, bullish sentiments linger in the oil market as we head into the final month of the year.
Personal income saw a healthy gain in October (+0.7% m/m), driven by strong growth in employee compensation (0.5% m/m) alongside one-time refundable tax credits issued by states. Consumers were keen to spend those gains, with spending rising even more (+0.8% m/m). That took the consumer savings rate to a 17-year low of 2.3%. It wasn’t all inflation either. Controlling for taxes and inflation, income rose 0.4% m/m. Real spending was up a healthy 0.5% m/m, which puts third quarter consumer spending on track for a healthy gain. Headline PCE inflation fell 0.2 percentage-points (ppts) to 6% y/y (Chart 2) while the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure fell 0.1ppts to 5% y/y.
Earlier in the week we heard from Chair Powell for the first time since the November FOMC meeting. His remarks were little changed overall, but markets reacted strongly to his statement that “the time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting” in major financial news. This reaction, however, overlooked his reiteration that the FOMC has “a long way to go in restoring price stability” and that this will likely require “holding policy at a restrictive level for some time”. Coupled with his insistence that the FOMC will need to see “substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining” alongside the strong November jobs report, it is fair to say that their job is far from done.
Andrew Foran, Economist | 416-350-8927
This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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Markets had to hit the ground running after the Thanksgiving holiday, with a full slate of economic data and financial news. The November jobs report, personal income and spending data for October, and FOMC Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday were just the headliners. Markets rallied to start the week, but gains were pared back after the release of the November jobs report on Friday. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is up 0.3% on the week while the ten-year yield is down 10bps to 3.59%.
Personal income saw a healthy gain in October (+0.7% m/m), driven by strong growth in employee compensation (0.5% m/m) alongside one-time refundable tax credits issued by states. Consumers were keen to spend those gains, with spending rising even more (+0.8% m/m). That took the consumer savings rate to a 17-year low of 2.3%. It wasn’t all inflation either. Controlling for taxes and inflation, income rose 0.4% m/m. Real spending was up a healthy 0.5% m/m, which puts third quarter consumer spending on track for a healthy gain. Headline PCE inflation fell 0.2 percentage-points (ppts) to 6% y/y (Chart 2) while the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure fell 0.1ppts to 5% y/y.