Financial News for the Week of June 16th, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • The Federal Reserve met expectations and held the policy rate steady at 5.0-5.25%, but left the door open to further rate hikes later this year.
  • The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections underscored a more optimistic outlook, and an upward revision on the future path of the fed funds rate to 5.75% (previously 5.25%).
  • Retail sales data for May came in stronger than expected, underscoring a still resilient consumer. Inflation data came in on expectations, with the headline and core measure up 4.0% and 5.3%, respectively.

Keepin’ At It… For Now


Chart 1 shows select categories of retail sales (adjusted for inflation) for the month of May. Categories are shown in month-on-month terms. While building materials (+2.6% m/m) led the gains in May, other categories including furniture & home furnishings (+0.8% m/m), electronics (+0.5% m/m), apparel (+0.3%), sporting & other recreational goods (+0.5% m/m) and non-store retailers (+0.3% m/m) were all higher on the month. Data is soured from the Census Bureau and adjusted for inflation by TD Economics using CPI data reported by the Department of Labor Statistics.

There were few surprises on the economic front this week in financial news. As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady, after 10 consecutive increases over the past 15 months. Little changed in the statement, though the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) underscored a more hawkish trajectory for the fed funds rate. And rightfully so. Retail sales and inflation data out this week continued to reflect a degree of inertia still present in the U.S. economy, which will likely necessitate a bit more ‘work’ from the FOMC through the remainder of this year.

Focusing on the major changes in the SEP, the FOMC revised its economic outlook higher for 2023. Real GDP growth is now expected to be 1.0% by year-end (previously 0.4%), and the unemployment rate was lowered to 4.1% (previously 4.5%). The inflation outlook was also revised higher, with the median forecast on core PCE now at 3.9% (previously 3.6%). With a stronger economic outlook and higher expected inflation, the median projection on the future path of the policy rate was raised by 50-bps to 5.6% – suggesting a terminal policy rate of 5.75%.

At the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Powell was pressed on the timing of the potential future rate hikes. While remaining non-committal, Powell emphasized that the July meeting remained ‘live’, and the decision would ultimately be determined by the ‘totality’ of the data flow. From that perspective, a July hike seems more likely than not.

Chart 2 shows both core CPI with and without shelter and used vehicle prices. The latter two categories have been responsible for much of the growth in core inflation in recent months. Excluding these shows a slightly more subdued pace of price growth in May of 4.2% as opposed to 5.3% y/y on core CPI. Data is sourced from the Department of Labor Statistics.

Data out this week on retail sales showed that consumer spending is still humming at a decent clip. Total retail sales rose 0.3% m/m in May, well ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a pullback of 0.2%. After stripping out food and gasoline, sales were even stronger – rising 0.4% m/m. While gains were led by building materials – an inherently volatile category – there was enough breadth across other discretionary categories to suggest that the ‘resilient’ narrative remains intact (Chart 1) in financial news. Our current tracking for Q2 spending sits between 1.5%-2%. While this represents a deceleration from Q1’s 3.8%, spending is still running far too hot to meaningfully cool inflation. This was evident in the May inflation data.

CPI rose by just 0.1% m/m, though the more subdued headline reading was the result of falling energy prices and slower food inflation. Core inflation (excludes food & energy), rose by a more notable 0.4% m/m with the 12-month change ticking down just 0.2%-pts to 5.3%. Sizeable contributions from both used vehicle prices and shelter were responsible for much of last month’s core gains. Excluding these two items shows a more subdued pace of price growth, with prices up just 0.1% m/m or 4.2% y/y (Chart 2). While stripping out individual categories is sometimes a dangerous game to play, there’s good reason to believe that both have downside over the coming months. This reinforces the notion that getting inflation down from today’s +5% reading to 3% over the next year is very feasible. It’s the last leg lower (from 3% to 2%) that will be the biggest challenge for the Fed, hence the need for policymakers to ‘keep at it’ for the time being.

Thomas Feltmate, Director | 416-944-5730


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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Financial News for the Week of June 9th, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • The ISM Services index surprised on the downside, falling 1.6 points to 50.3 in May. The employment sub-index drifted below the 50-point contractionary threshold for the first time since December.
  • Initial jobless claims rose by 28,000 in the week ending on June 3rd, lifting initial claims to 261,000 – the highest level in 20 months. However, this week included the Memorial Day holiday, which may have distorted the data.
  • The U.S. trade deficit jumped by $14 billion or 23% in April to $74.6 billion – the widest level in six months. The widening of the trade deficit in April indicates that trade is likely to subtract from growth in the second quarter.

Mild Signs of a Slowdown Continue


Financial News Chart 1 shows the ISM Manufacturing and Services indexes, with the data stretching back to 2012. The chart shows that the Services index drifted lower in May 2023, easing to 50.3 points. The manufacturing index, meanwhile, has been below the 50-point contractionary threshold for some time now.  In the wake of last week’s debt ceiling deal (see report), markets had the opportunity to catch their breath in a quiet week for data releases in financial news. The ISM Services report disappointed, with the headline index falling 1.6 points to 50.3 in May, instead of improving moderately to 52.4 as per market expectations. The recent downtrend reflects an economy that is gradually decelerating, echoing the ‘slowdown’ narrative advanced by its manufacturing counterpart (Chart 1). This theme was further supported by the report’s details, with all the main sub-indicators – including business activity, new orders, and employment – declining on the month. Of note, the employment index fell 1.6 points to 49.2, drifting below the 50-point contractionary threshold for the first time since December.

Continuing with signs for some potential softening in the labor market, initial jobless claims surged higher in the week ending on June 3rd, rising by 28,000 – much more than anticipated. This lifted initial claims to 261,000 – the highest level in 20 months (Chart 2). While the increase is substantial, for now we caution against reading too much into this in financial news. The weekly data can be noisy, and the week included the Memorial Day holiday, which may have also injected some volatility. Secondly, looking at seasonally unadjusted figures, the increase lacked breadth across states, as it was concentrated in Ohio, California, and Minnesota.

April’s international trade report did little to lift the mood. The U.S. trade deficit jumped by $14 billion or 23% in April to $74.6 billion – the widest level in six months. The most noticeable change was in the goods category. The U.S. goods deficit grew by close to 18%, as exports fell 5.3% and imports grew 2%, with the latter marking a rebound after two consecutive monthly declines. Trade made no contribution to economic growth in the first quarter of this year. The widening of the trade deficit in April indicates that it is likely to subtract from growth in the second quarter.

Financial News Chart 2 shows initial jobless claims on the left axis and continuing claims on the right axis. The chart shows that initial claims surged higher in the week ending on June 3rd, rising to 261,000 – the highest level in 20 months.  All told, the few reports that came out this week point to growth in the U.S. economy moderating. The Fed will take this information into account before it meets next week to set monetary policy. The last major piece of information on the docket before the Fed makes its decision is May’s CPI inflation report, which comes out one day ahead of the FOMC meeting. The market consensus forecast calls for core CPI to ease moderately to 5.3% year-on-year in May from 5.5% in April. Surprise rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada earlier this week serve as a reminder that amidst stubborn inflation there’s the potential for the Fed to opt for a hike too. That said, Fed officials have been vocal in signaling that they will forego a hike at next week’s meeting. Market odds are in tune with this view, attaching a 75% probability to a stand pat decision next week (as tracked by CME Group). However, markets still narrowly favor a hike at the next meeting in July (52% odds). In short, while next week is likely to be uneventful regarding policy changes, Fed communication may offer additional insight as to whether the FOMC sees the need for some further tightening over the near-term or not. 

Admir Kolaj, Economist | 416-944-6318


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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Financial News for the Week of June 2nd, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • Congress passes a deal to suspend the debt limit, averting the “worst case scenario” of a default.
  • Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report featured a big jobs gain (+339k) and a pop in the unemployment rate (+0.3 percentage points).
  • The health in the labor market is consistent with our view that policy easing won’t come until at least the first quarter of next year.

Labor Market Stays Hot Despite Rising Unemployment Rate


Financial News Chart 1 plots the ISM manufacturing new orders and backlogs indexes. The chart shows new orders and backlogs are below the 50-threshold that indicates growth. Moreover, the backlogs index has reached levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. With Congress passing a deal to suspend the debt limit and avoiding a default, all eyes were focused on this morning’s non-farm payrolls report. Hiring rose by a robust +339k, which came in well above the consensus forecast of 195k in major financial news. Looking forward, markets are now expecting the Fed will have to keep rates higher for longer to cool the economy and inflation.

Turning to the specifics of debt ceiling deal, Congress passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 which will suspend the debt ceiling for two years and avert a default on U.S. debt (link). The deal caps discretionary spending for 2024-2025 and will have a modest effect on reducing the deficit over that time horizon. Moreover, the overall impact on the economy should be modest with the peak impact coming in 2024 and the possibility of shaving 0.1% off GDP growth.

The economic data out this week showed U.S. manufacturing activity continues to feel the pinch from higher rates and a pullback in demand. The ISM manufacturing index registered a 46.9 reading – well short of the 50 print indicating growth. This is now the seventh consecutive month of contraction for the sector and the outlook in the coming months is decidedly gloomy in financial news. New orders contracted again (at a faster pace than the month prior) and the backlogs in business that have helped keep factories humming cleared at their fastest pace since the Global Financial Crisis (Chart 1). There was a silver lining to the report as the transportation sector did report an expansion for the month of May – helping it continue its recovery amid ongoing tight supplies. Indeed, despite vehicle sales in May coming in slightly below expectations (15.1 million annualized vs. the 15.3 million annualized expected) the details of the report show that pent-up demand is still being cleared and the industry remains undersupplied.

Financial News Chart 2 plots the month-to-month change in nonfarm payrolls, the concept adjusted household employment and the number of unemployed persons. The chart shows that in May 2023 the rise in the number of unemployed persons was concentrated in segments of the labor market that are not captured in the payrolls report.  The weakness in the manufacturing sector was expected and stands in stark contrast to what’s happening across the rest of labor market. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 339k position in May, blowing past expectations for a more modest expansion of 195k. The bulk of the growth came from the services side – adding 257k positions in May – though construction (+25k) and government (+56k) all chipped in with healthy gains. However, this blowout print was accompanied by a 440k increase in the number of unemployed in the household survey – lifting the unemployment rate 30 basis points to 3.7%. Excluding the lockdown phase of the pandemic, this is the steepest rise in the jobless rate since November 2010. However, take the rise with a grain of salt, as the concept adjusted household employment that excludes categories like agricultural and household workers and adds in multiple job holders to make it comparable to the payrolls numbers, showed a still healthy 394k gain (Chart 2).

With this backdrop markets are as bracing for the possibility of another Fed hike by mid-summer and a delayed start to rate cuts. The need for rates to remain in restrictive territory for longer is in line with our view that policy easing won’t come until 2024Q1.

 

Andrew Hencic, Senior Economist | 416-944-5307


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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Financial News for the Week of May 26th, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • Negotiators appeared close to a deal to raise the debt ceiling and set spending levels. However, the deal does not address Washington’s medium-term fiscal challenges, which were part of the reason Fitch put the U.S. on a negative watch.
  • Consumers continued to spend at a healthy clip in April, contributing to sustained inflation pressures. We continue to expect spending to cool as the year goes on, helping to ease inflation, eventually.
  • In the meantime, the Fed is in a tough spot. It will need courage to pause and wait for the full impact of its past tightening to show up.

 

“Discretion” Is the Better Part of Valor in Washington


Financial News Chart 1 entitled 'Cutting Discretionary Spending Won't Fix U.S. Deficit Problem', shows Mandatory and discretionary spending for the U.S. federal government for 2023 to 2025 alongside the level of the deficit. It shows that mandatory spending is around $4.6 trillion in a given year, while Discretionary is 1.7 trillion and the deficit is 1.5 trillion. It demonstrates that cuts to discretionary spending cannot be enough to fix the U.S.'s deficit problem.Thankfully, negotiators appeared close to a deal to raise the debt ceiling as of Friday morning in financial news. It looks like the two-year deal would cap discretionary spending and raise the debt ceiling through the 2024 election, avoiding the worst-case scenarios. However, ratings agency Fitch had cited the “failure of the U.S. authorities to meaningfully tackle medium-term fiscal challenges” as a reason for putting the U.S. on a negative watch, and this deal does not change that.

Congress has taken the Shakespearean proverb “discretion is the better part of valor” literally. The Bard’s original intention was a criticism of a lack of honour and courage in focusing on discretion. The debt ceiling deal only tinkers around the edges of the larger issue of a structural deficit on the order of 6% of GDP.

Discretionary spending accounts for only 27% of total federal government outlays, and the federal deficit is estimated to be $1.5 trillion in 2023. As shown in Chart 1, Congress would need to cut discretionary spending nearly to zero to balance the books if they only address discretionary spending. To seriously address the deficit, it needs to take the more courageous steps and look at mandatory spending – namely entitlements like social security and Medicare. Or, it needs to find a way to grow revenues at the same pace as population aging. Alas, courage seems in short supply in Congress these days.

Speaking of discretion in spending, real consumer spending was up a healthy 0.5% month-on-month in April in financial news. Spending was driven by robust  gains in outlays on both goods and services. Monthly spending data has been very choppy over the past six months but comparing it to real income less transfer payments (which is a key recession indicator used by the NBER), you see that the upward trend in spending is outpacing real income growth (Chart 2).

Financial News Chart 2 entitled 'How Long Can U.S. Spending Growth Outpace Income?' shows the level of real consumer spending and real personal income less transfer payments. Income is above spending but has shown a flatter trend over the past six months or so, while spending has been trending higher. Thanks to a strong labor market, real income gains have held up. Added to the cushion of excess savings built up during the pandemic, the consumer has been able to keep spending in the face of very high inflation, in turn contributing to demand-driven inflation pressures. Chart 2 suggests that spending is set to slow – even if the labor market doesn’t cool. About 60% of the excess savings cushion has been spent, and spending cannot outgrow income indefinitely before consumers will need to tighten their belts.

We expect that belt tightening to be in greater evidence as the year goes on. After consumer spending grew by 3.8% annualized in Q1, it is tracking a more modest 2% in Q2. We expect it to fall below 1% in the second half of the year, which will help to dampen inflationary pressures. Until then, the Fed is on the horns of a dilemma.
Its preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, remained around where it has been all year at 4.7% year/year in April. Markets are judging this could mean the Fed should push a bit harder on rates, with market odds tilting slightly in favor of another hike in June. We believe that the Fed will need to hold its courage and pause and assess the impact of the significant monetary policy tightening that has not yet had its full impact on economic growth.

 

Leslie Preston, Managing Director & Senior Economist | 416-944-5307


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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Financial News for the Week of May 19th, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • Financial markets remained eerily positive this week, despite the debt ceiling X-date looming with no bipartisan deal in sight.
  • Retail sales data for April showed the continued resilience of the U.S. consumer, while housing starts are looking to have reached a bottom after having fallen 24% last year. Home sales were lower in April, and likely have a bit further to fall.
  • Fed speakers diverged this week on the near-term trajectory of the fed funds rate. Financial markets are still pricing 50 bps of rate cuts by year-end.

Optimistic Markets Cheer the Small Wins


Financial News Chart 1 shows the inventory of available homes for sale across the U.S., shown in monthly frequency and thousands of units. Inventory reached an all-time high during the Global Financial Crisis of nearly 4 million units. Today, inventory sits at 1.078 million, which is not far off last year's historical low of 1 million units. The data is sourced from National Association of Realtors.Risk sentiment remained eerily positive across global financial markets this week, despite the clock ticking down on the debt ceiling X-date (see report) in financial news. But instead of losing the forest for the trees, investors seemed to cheer the incremental progress made this week. President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, and their negotiators, met on Tuesday for a closed-door meeting, where there appears to be some common ground on several items including clawing back unspent pandemic relief funds, speeding up permitting of domestic energy projects, and applying stricter work requirements for some social safety net programs. However, the two parties remain deeply divided on the size of broader spending cuts. At the time of writing, equity markets are looking to end the week up 2%, while the 10-year Treasury is up 25 bps to 3.71%.

Turning to the economic data, retail sales data painted a picture of a still resilient consumer in April. Although headline retail sales (+0.4% m/m) came in below expectations (+0.8% m/m), this was partially the result of a pullback in gasoline sales – largely a price- driven decline. The headline was also weighed down by weaker growth in motor vehicle sales, despite wholesale auto sales showing a healthy gain last month in financial news. After removing the volatile items, the control group – a more precise measure of consumer spending – rose by a healthy 0.7% m/m.  This suggests continued momentum for Q2 consumer spending, with our current tracking around 1%-1.5%.

Financial News Chart 2 shows monthly housing permits data, split by single-family and multifamily – dating back to January 2022 through April 2023. Housing permits have trended lower through much of 2022 – falling from 1.8 million to a low of 1.35 million in January 2023. The declines were entirely felt in the single-family segment. Since January 2023, permits have ticked up from their lows, as gains in the single-family segment have more than offset the pullback in multifamily. Data is sourced for the U.S. Census Bureau.Data out this week on the housing market showed existing home sales fell by 3.4% m/m to 4.28 million units in April. The pullback comes after sales had shown signs of life earlier this year. However, much of that activity was the result of a pullback in mortgage rates that had occurred between October-January. Since then, mortgage rates have again turned higher, and at 7.1%, are not far off last year’s highs. Not only has this kept new homebuyers on the sidelines, but it has also discouraged move-up buyers from listing properties, which has kept inventory levels near historic lows (Chart 1).

While home sales likely have a bit more room to fall, housing starts may have already reached a bottom. Residential construction rose 2.2% m/m to 1.4 million in April, with gains seen across both the multifamily (+3.2% m/m) and single-family (+1.6% m/m) segments. Permitting activity points to an uptick in construction in the single-family segment over the coming months, though this will likely be offset by some pullback in multifamily, which has yet to feel any correction through this tightening cycle (Chart 2).

Several Fed speakers this week showed a growing divergence among committee members on the near-term trajectory of the fed funds rate. While a few officials endorsed another rate hike, others are favoring a pause given the recent banking turmoil and the uncertainness it poses to the economic outlook. However, all officials still support rates remaining elevated through this year, which remains at odds with market pricing where 50 bps of cuts are still expected by year-end.

 

Thomas Feltmate, Director & Senior Economist | 416-944-5730

 


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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Financial News for the Week of May 12th, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • Inflation eased modestly in April, with headline and core CPI both ticking down by 0.1 percentage points to 4.9% and
    5.5% year-on-year respectively.
  • The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed that a higher share of commercial banks tightened
    credit conditions in April than January.
  • A meeting between President Biden and Congressional leaders failed to yield any progress on negotiations to raise/suspend
    the debt limit.

Inflation Continues to Cool in Earnest


Financial News Chart 1: The chart shows the year-on-year percentage change in headline CPI for the U.S., in addition to the subcomponents for core goods and core services. Headline CPI has been slowing gradually since the second half of last year, although at 4.9% in April it is still almost 3 percentage points above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. In contrast, core goods inflation started to decline at a more rapid pace in the first half of 2022 and was previously below the Fed's 2% target at the start of 2023 but has since begun to rise again and sat at 2.1% in April. Core services inflation continued to rise throughout 2022 and into 2023 and has only recently begun to trend downward, sitting at 6.8% in April.On the heels of last week’s FOMC meeting, we were provided with a host of economic data this week to assess the Fed’s new wait-and-see approach, including April’s CPI report in financial news. In addition, we also received the second quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) and had a meeting between President Biden and Congressional leadership as they attempt to find an agreement to raise the debt limit. Markets ended the week relatively unchanged, with the S&P 500 down 0.1% and the ten-year Treasury Yield down 4bps at 3.41% as of the time of writing.

Inflation eased modestly in April, as headline inflation rose by 4.9% year-on-year, down modestly from 5% in March (Chart 1). Energy prices rose for the first time in three months as gasoline jumped by 3% month-on-month (m/m), and food prices were flat for a second consecutive month. Stripping out energy and food, core inflation ticked down to 5.5% y/y, having fluctuated between 5.5-5.6% y/y since January in financial news. While we did see shelter inflation decelerate for a second consecutive month, it still rose by 0.4% m/m. This in addition to the reacceleration in core goods inflation, worked to keep core inflation elevated. Although on aggregate this report had positive developments, it reiterated the fact that the path back to the Fed’s 2% target is unlikely to be a straight line.

Of particular concern for the Fed is the potential for inflation expectations to become de-anchored. In the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations this week, we saw three-year ahead inflation expectations rise for a second consecutive month to 2.9% in April (Chart 2). While this series has historically run slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, a sustained movement above 3% would be a concern for the FOMC.

Financial News Chart 2: The chart shows the median of 3-year ahead inflation expectations in the U.S. over the past year. After falling rapidly from just under 4% in early 2022, the series rose again briefly in the third quarter before returning roughly to its historical average (~2.5%). However, over the past few months, the series has begun to drift higher and is now just under 3% once again.Earlier in the week, we saw that U.S. commercial banks continued to tighten credit conditions in April in the Fed’s SLOOS. Commercial & industrial loans as well as commercial real estate (CRE) loans saw a higher net percentage of banks tightening credit standards than in January. Demand for these loans from businesses fell as a result, however household demand for consumer-facing loans (mortgages, auto, credit card, etc.) rose as credit remained relatively accessible. Further analysis of the SLOOS can be found here.

Lastly, in the Oval Office this week, President Biden met with Congressional leaders on Tuesday to attempt to find an agreement to raise/suspend the debt limit. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned last week that the Treasury could run out of funds by early June, thus the impetus to reach an agreement is elevated. However, no progress has been made in the negotiations so far.

Looking ahead to next week, we will get a fresh update on the U.S. consumer with April retail sales as well as existing home sales. With the unemployment rate back down to 3.4% consumers may still have some wind in their sails, but we expect that this will be short-lived as past rate hikes continue to filter through the economy.

 

Andrew Foran, Economist | 416-350-8927


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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Featured Article: In Retirement, We Have More Time Than Ever. But We Want to Use It Wisely.

In Retirement, We Have More Time Than Ever. But We Want to Use It Wisely.

We have fantasized about this moment for decades. The trick is learning how to savor it.

The first year in retirement is often the most difficult. But it also can be the most crucial, setting the stage for how you’ll fill the years ahead—both financially and psychologically. Stephen Kreider Yoder, 65, a longtime Wall Street Journal editor, joined his wife, Karen Kreider Yoder, 66, in retirement in September. In this monthly Retirement Rookies column, they are chronicling some of the issues they are dealing with in their first year, offering their different perspectives on what can be a confusing transition.


Steve

In Retirement We Have More Time

Stephen Kreider Yoder

For the first time in many years, time isn’t money.

That was never more clear one afternoon earlier this year when we were gazing down at the Mediterranean Sea while sipping coffee in a cafe in the town plaza in Bejaia, Algeria. We had no fixed plans for the day or the next week—just as planned.

We suddenly have time in abundance, now that we’re both retired, and we’re learning how to spend this currency that for decades has been so scarce. We can now linger where we want to be and dally over what we want to do.

Algeria was an ideal place to test this new reality. We had visited in 2019, but could afford only two weeks, what with full-time jobs—far too short for a country roughly 3.5 times the size of Texas. “We need more time there,” I said as we flew home.

This year, we could take nearly twice as long to immerse ourselves in what the country offered: a green coastal region that gives way to the golden Sahara; a mosaic of Arab, Berber, French and other cultures; Roman Empire ruins; good food and wine; some of the most hospitable people we’ve met.

We’ve been fantasizing about this time in life since we got married. For decades, time was a rare commodity, and we had to spend a lot of money to acquire it. We paid an absurd price for a house in San Francisco, partly to limit our commutes. We often hired others to do tasks I enjoyed, like fixing our cars or restoring the trim on our Victorian.

“We need more time” was our constant lament, at no time more than during travel. We would shoehorn several countries into two-week tours. We liked to travel abroad on a low budget—it got us closer to the reality of wherever we were—but that took time, and we often didn’t have the luxury.

We have it now. Earlier this year, we rode the Amtrak California Zephyr to Iowa, rather than flying, to see my parents. It was about 48 hours each way, but what was the hurry? We got beds, three meals a day and a rolling display of Western America. We extended our stay with Mom and Dad to a full week.

Back home, I fired up the metal lathe to fine-tune a bearing-cup press I had made earlier—a bike tool that worked fine but which I had great fun fussing with for hours to refine it. I’ll soon solicit bids for scaffolding, so I can start restoring trim.

It’s beginning to occur to us: By saving money assiduously during our 44 years of marriage, we weren’t putting away only funds. We were also accumulating time to spend in retirement.

Money, at long last, is time.


Karen

In Retirement We Have More Time

Karen Kreider Yoder

I’ve never been more aware of the finite nature of time. We’re rich with it now, but there’s no guarantee how long those riches will last. At best, thanks to the longevity that runs in our families, we may have 30 good years of life left. That feels like a long time—and no time at all.

So I’ve been thinking: Maybe we should be budgeting our time like we budget money.

Should I, for instance, spend some of my newfound wealth of time on things I’ve loved to do all my life but had to cut back on while I was working? During the busy years of my career, I continued to make quilts, but had to leave many undone. I baked my own granola and whipped up many meals for friends, but found myself ordering out or picking up prepared foods from the grocery store to save time.

Yet now that I have the luxury of time, the opportunities to fill it have also grown. And that means I still find myself weighing how to spend it—and when to keep spending money instead. I still love to create things, for instance, but would I rather sew an original outfit from scratch or shop for a less-original affair and bank the time? We have time to do housecleaning now; does that mean we should stop paying someone else to do it once a month?

These aren’t easy questions. As a result, we’re talking about looking at all the large time expenditures on our list—travel, house work, volunteering, organizing photos—and laying them out on an annual budget. That will help us use our time more wisely.

As we talked about in our last column, we also need to do a better job savoring—as opposed to just running through—the time we have. That hit home on our trip to the Algerian Sahara this year. We had blocked off a week to explore the desert, far longer than we would have during preretirement travel. We could finally take a leisurely pace, we told ourselves.

Yet we couldn’t shake the old urge to make each hour pay off. My question when we arrived the first night: “When should we be ready for breakfast in the morning?”

Our Tuareg guide, Habib, laughed. “You get up when you want,” he said. “In the desert, slowly, slowly.”

That became our mantra for the next days as we camped each night in a different swath of the wilderness. We sat around a low table for our morning coffee and baguette with fig jam. “Slowly, slowly,” Habib would say, and we would repeat it after him.

“Slowly, slowly,” he cautioned as we set off scrambling over rocks toward ancient pictographs. After lunch under a cool tree, we would chat and read and nap. “Slowly, slowly,” we would chant, and again in the evening as Habib stoked a small fire to heat tea, pouring it back and forth between two pots until it foamed into a thick, sweet brew. We brought that mantra home from Algeria. We’ve got time now, and if we budget it carefully, we can afford to spend it slowly, slowly.

The Yoders live in San Francisco and can be reached at reports@wsj.com.

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Financial News for the Week of May 5th, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • The Federal Reserve hiked the policy rate 25 basis points this week, lifting it to a 16-year high of 5.00-5.25%. Changes in FOMC statement hinted at the potential for a pause, though Chair Powell stated that such a decision had not been made.
  • The banking stress continues to fester, with this week marking the failure of another bank (First Republic).
  • Though still slowing on a trend basis, hiring ticked up in April, with the economy adding 253k jobs. That was above market expectations for a gain of 180k, but downward revisions to the prior months tempered the optimism.

Fed Lifts Policy Rate to a 16-year High


Chart 1 shows the level of the Fed Funds Rate and its change on a year-ago basis. The chart shows that the current policy rate of 5.00-5.25% is the highest in 16 years. Meanwhile, the recent year-on-year increase in policy rate is the most aggressive compared to prior cycles, with data stretching back to the early 1980s.The Fed followed through with its highly anticipated decision to hike the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) this week in financial news. This lifted the fed funds rate to 5.00-5.25% – the highest level in 16 years – in what has been a historically aggressive hiking cycle (Chart 1). Changes in the FOMC statement hinted at the potential for a pause, so this could very well be the last hike of this cycle. But, stating this explicitly would not serve the Fed well at this point. In the press conference, Chair Powell tried to keep his options open, stating bluntly that a decision on a pause had not been made.

The Fed’s communication is at odds with market expectations. Markets are dismissing the possibility of further rate hikes and are instead signaling that after a brief pause the Fed will begin cutting rates. Market odds as tracked by the CME Group point to 75 bps in cuts over the last few months of the year. Asked about this divergence, Powell pushed back against the notion of soon-to-come cuts in financial news. In his words, the reasoning is that the Fed sees inflation coming down “not so quickly”, and that if that outlook proves to be broadly correct then “it would not be appropriate to cut rates”.

Fed Chair Powell noted that upcoming policy rate decisions would ultimately be data-dependent, mentioning the usual suspects (i.e., inflation and labor market metrics), while also putting a focus on credit conditions. Tighter credit conditions ultimately serve a similar purpose to rate hikes when it comes to cooling economic growth and inflation. This is something that the Fed considers in setting monetary policy, especially in light of the recent banking stress, with this week marking the failure of another regional bank. Powell had access to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), due to be released publicly on Monday, and noted that it would show a tightening in credit conditions among small and medium sized banks.

Chart 2 shows an acceleration in average hourly earnings growth both on a month-on-month (annualized) and year-on-year basis for the month of April. Another wage growth measure from the Atlanta Fed, shows that yearly gains over the last few months through March 2023 have held relatively flat at a level that's somewhat higher compared to the gain in average hourly earnings.   Factoring in the banking stress and tighter credit conditions suggests that the Fed has done enough, but labor market resilience continues. On the one hand, the pace of job creation continues to trend down on a three-month moving average basis. On the other hand, it’s hard to discount the strength in the April jobs report. The economy added 253k jobs last month – well above expectations for 180k. Gains were concentrated in service sectors (+197k). The labor force participation rate held flat at post-pandemic high of 62.6%, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4%, matching January’s multi-decade low. Amidst the ongoing tightness in the labor market, growth in average hourly earnings accelerated both on a year-on-year and month-on-month basis, while other wage measures also point to some resilience (Chart 2).

Should the strength seen in April extend in the months ahead, it could push the Fed to hike a bit more. However, other labor market indicators – such as job openings, which are trending down, and initial jobless claims, which continue to trend up – are not in tune with this view. All told, the upcoming data will continue to bear careful watching, with next week’s CPI report next under the magnifying glass.

Admir Kolaj, Economist | 416-944-6318


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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Financial News for the Week of April 28th, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • U.S. real GDP growth slowed to 1.1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) annualized in 2023 Q1, from 2.6% q/q in the previous quarter. A measure of underlying domestic demand accelerated to 2.9% q/q, supported by a strong gain in consumer spending, although the monthly pattern revealed that the spending gain was entirely concentrated in January.
  • New home sales grew by 9.6% month-on-month in March. While this series is volatile, it has been trending up since the end of last year.
  • Core PCE inflation remained elevated in March, easing modestly to 4.6% year-on-year from 4.7% in February.

Core Inflation Remains Elevated, Fed to Hike Next Week


Chart 1 shows that U.S. real GDP growth slowed from 2.6% quarter-over-quarter annualized in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 1.1% in the first quarter of this year. A measure of underlying domestic demand (final sales to private domestic purchasers) accelerated from 0% to 2.9%. Meanwhile, removing spending at motor vehicles and parts dealers from total GDP, shows that the rest of the economy recorded zero growth. U.S. real GDP growth slowed to a 1.1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) annualized pace in the first quarter of 2023, from 2.6% q/q at the end of 2022 in financial news. While consensus expectations were looking for a better print, a slowdown in growth was always in the cards as a reversal of the prior quarter’s inventory built-up was expected. That reversal materialized. Government spending, meanwhile, provided an offset, delivering a 0.8 percentage point (pp) contribution to growth. With the combined impact of inventories and government spending adding volatility to the data, we typically look past these items and focus on ‘final sales to private domestic purchasers’ to get a clearer reading of underlying domestic demand. After several quarters of slow growth, this measure accelerated to 2.9% q/q, supported by a strong gain in consumer spending (+3.7%).

At face value, the acceleration in underlying domestic demand is good news. However, monthly spending data shows that the strength was concentrated in January, with growth flatlining over the next two months. Much of the quarter’s strength came from auto sales. Unit auto sales grew from 14.3 million (annualized) at the end of 2022, to 15.3 million in 2023 Q1, resulting in a 1.1 (pp) contribution to GDP. If we remove that impact, the rest of the economy recorded zero growth (Chart 1). While our forecast calls for motor vehicles sales to remain at a high level over the near-term, as pent-up demand is satiated by improved production (see here), this channel is unlikely to offer the same level of support in 2023 Q2.

Chart 2 shows that year-over-year core PCE inflation remained elevated in March, eased modestly from 4.7% in the month prior to 4.6%. Meanwhile, the 3-month annualized percent change in the core PCE index eased to 4.9%.   Residential investment remained a growth detractor for the eight consecutive quarter, but its negative impact moderated noticeably as average declines of 26% q/q in the second half of 2022 eased to 4.2% q/q in 2023 Q1. We expect residential investment to be less of a drag this year, a message echoed by some moderate positive signals out of the housing market. New home sales, a volatile series, continue to trend up since the end of last year, rising 9.6% month-on-month in March. This is happening as tight supply conditions on the existing home market look to be driving some more action towards the new home market. That said, with housing affordability still exceptionally low, buyers are showing increased sensitivity to mortgage rates (though with the typical lag). An index tracking the number of contracts signed to purchase existing homes, a reliable indicator of closed sales, fell 5.2% in March amidst an uptrend in mortgage rates earlier in the month in financial news. The stress in regional banking is also likely to have contributed to the hesitation among buyers to sign housing contracts.

In weighing the Fed’s next interest rate decision, the latest PCE report showed that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remained elevated in March. While overall PCE slowed noticeably to 4.2% year-on-year (y/y), from 5.1% in the month prior, core PCE eased only modestly to 4.6% y/y (Chart 2). In our view, core PCE inflation has a long way to return to target (see here). As such, we expect the Fed to hike by 25 basis points next week and keep the policy rate at that high level through the end of the year.

 

Admir Kolaj, Economist | 416-944-6318


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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Financial News for the Week of April 21st, 2023

Financial News Highlights

  • China’s economy saw solid growth in the first quarter, with a strong rebound in consumption and exports after lockdowns were lifted at the end of last year.
  • U.S. existing home sales fell by 2.4% month-on-month (m/m) in March, falling from February’s revised 13.8% m/m uptick as past mortgage rate increases weighed on demand.
  • FOMC members noted that they continue to monitor credit conditions, but many seem to be in favor of further policy tightening at the next meeting in May.

Housing Falls as the Fed Blackout Period Begins


Chart 1: The chart shows the gradual decline seen in year-on-year price growth for median existing home prices from January 2022 to March 2023. For the first half of 2022, price growth sat near 15% year-on-year, and then began to decline moderately up until it turned negative in February 2023. Note that while growth was technically negative in February, it was marginal at 0.03%. March saw a more sizeable decline of -0.9%.As earnings season picked up pace this week, markets were closely attuned to the first quarter performance of U.S. companies in financial news. However, the net result on equity markets was muted, as results that were on aggregate moderately positive were partially overshadowed by the downbeat outlook for demand amid the expected economic slowdown later this year. As of the time of writing, the S&P 500 is down 0.5% on the week while the ten-year Treasury yield is up 5 basis-points (bps) to 3.57%.

On the global economic data front, we kicked off the week with first quarter Chinese GDP data, which grew by 4.5% from its year-ago level. The print was better than expected, as pent-up demand from consumers powered growth. China’s economic rebound is expected to be short-lived as consumer exuberance fades and structural headwinds continue to weigh on the economy in the back half of the year.

In the U.S. we had a housing-centric week for economic data, with updates on both existing home sales and residential construction. Data released on Thursday showed that existing home sales fell by 2.4% month-on-month (m/m) in March, pulling back from February’s revised 13.8% m/m increase. Month-to-month changes have been mirroring the volatility seen in mortgage rates (with a lag) as elevated prices have increased the reliance of buyers on financing conditions. While median home prices declined for a second consecutive month relative to year-ago levels (Chart 1), the seasonally adjusted change between February and March was slightly positive. Prices have been held up in part due to low inventory levels. However, new home construction is picking up, with single-family housing starts recovering for a second consecutive month in March, after eleven straight months of declines.

Chart 2: The chart shows the market price-based probability for the Federal Reserve's main policy instrument, the federal funds rate, for the next two upcoming meetings in May and June. Markets expect that the Fed will raise the policy rate by 25 basis-points in May, from the current range of 4.75-5% to 5-5.25%, with a probability of 86% as of the time of writing. Markets then expect the Fed to hold rates at that level in June with 64% probability. Markets are also marking the possibility that the Fed may hike again in June with 27% probability.With the Federal Reserve’s pre-meeting blackout period starting on Saturday, we won’t hear from any FOMC members again until Chair Powell’s press conference on May 3rd. Luckily, we heard from ten Fed officials this week, six of whom are voting members. Most of the speakers noted that they were continuing to monitor credit conditions for signs of further stress. The Fed’s regional monitoring in April’s Beige Book stating that “several Districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity” in financial news. Although this may aid the Fed in tightening credit conditions, as noted by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee this week, most members seemed to agree that further policy tightening would be required to sustainably return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. As of the time of writing, markets are expecting the Fed to hike by 25bps in May, and then hold in June (Chart 2).

Next week we’ll get a first look at first quarter U.S. GDP and March PCE inflation, both of which are expected to show signs of cooling. Our forecast calls for activity to continue to slow through the remainder of 2023. This should help ease inflation pressures, enabling the Fed to keep the funds rate at 5.25% for the rest of the year.

 

Andrew Foran, Economist | 416-350-8927


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this financial news report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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