The Best Ways for Couples To Manage Finances

The Best Ways for Couples to Manage Finances

We asked financial experts—and readers—how they handle money in their own relationships. There are valuable lessons here for everybody.

Money can be one of the most contentious aspects of a relationship or marriage. One in five couples identifies money as their greatest relationship challenge, according to a 2021 Fidelity Investments survey of individuals ages 25 years and older in a married or long-term committed relationship.

Sometimes the challenge is about who spends too much or who doesn’t save enough. But perhaps the most difficult issue is more basic than that. It’s about how to combine finances, if at all. Is it better to keep everything separate? And if you do join forces, who keeps track of the spending and saving, and how do you do it?

Of course, there is no single right or wrong way for couples to divvy up their finances and financial duties. How tasks and decision-making are split can depend on a partner’s existing financial know-how, interest or willingness. Some people want a 50/50 split of duties; some defer all tasks to one partner. Others, meanwhile, have each partner focus on their individual strengths: One person may be a good at the nitty-gritty of budgets and bills while the other is a big-picture thinker when it comes to money.

We wanted to know the different approaches that couples and partners take. To that end, we asked three groups of people to tell us what they do in their own relationships: professional advisers, academics who study financial behavior, and Wall Street Journal readers. Here are some of their responses about finances.

There’s my money, and there’s your money

Unlike many working professionals, when we got married, my husband and I decided not to combine our finances. Although there is some empirical research showing that people who combine their bank accounts feel a greater sense of “financial togetherness,” which can in turn promote relationship satisfaction, we prefer the feeling of personal control that comes with maintaining separate bank accounts.

We use an expense tracker to equally split bills and daily expenses. When it comes to personal items—like new clothes or videogames—we purchase those from our independent accounts. This means we don’t have to ask our partner for permission to make the occasional luxury or experiential purchase. Importantly, this approach to keeping our bank accounts separate doesn’t mean we don’t talk about financial decisions. When it comes to both major decisions like investing and minor decisions like making purchases for our home or buying a toy for our pet, we make these decisions together. Our general rule is that if the other person is going to split the expense, we ask for their input before making the purchase. Our daily purchase discussions about needs and wants for our family allow us to experience financial togetherness, despite having separate bank accounts.

—Ashley Whillans, assistant professor at Harvard Business School

Three different buckets

In our family, it’s all about setting up a “divide and conquer” strategy while maintaining our unique financial independence. We combine our income and it essentially hits three buckets monthly—after we’ve saved 20% off the top. Bucket No. 1 (a joint checking account) is used to pay monthly bills. That gets 70% of the income. Bucket No. 2, which gets 5%, is a savings account for my spouse for buying gifts, entertainment or personal items. Bucket No. 3, which also gets 5%, is a savings account that allows me to do the same. Giving each partner a safe financial space—where they can have some money to do what they want when they want without having to ask—is a really important step to a healthy marriage when it comes to money.

My spouse is the chief financial officer and manages paying the monthly bills. She’s also in charge of making vendor changes when she feels it’s appropriate. My role is the chief investment officer, and I’m responsible for picking our investments, managing our real estate and allocating our 401(k)s. We act as a joint team when it comes to making financial decisions regarding our children—whether it’s allowances, mobile phones or the credit cards they use.

We act as co-CEOs when it comes to mapping out financial family goals and objectives. Each year, we assess our one-year goals in terms of savings, net worth or possible purchases. We review our long-term financial plan to make sure we are on track for goals such as college education and retirement. Having an open and transparent relationship with our money has allowed us to minimize arguments and discrepancies and focus on maximizing our mutual financial goals.—Ted Jenkin, co-CEO and founder of oXYGen Financial in Savannah, Ga.

It’s all in the prenup

My husband and I have a prenuptial agreement and we are both responsible for our own debts. Because we live in my husband’s condo, he pays the mortgage. I pay the association fee and buy the groceries. I am also responsible for my own car payment and car insurance. I collect rent from my former home. We both had assets when we got married, and he does have children from a prior marriage, so this arrangement seems very sensible for us. We both have separate bank accounts and credit cards. In addition, we have separate retirement accounts—both personal and from our employers.

When we purchase a house together (currently under construction), we should maintain our current arrangement, minus the mortgage; we’ll just divide the mortgage payment in proportion to our salaries. If we eventually sell the house, we will split the proceeds depending on how much we’ve invested in it individually.

—WSJ reader Jessica Moran, Fullerton, Calif.

A monthly financial meeting

My husband and I have been together for over 10 years and combined our finances after we married in 2015. One tradition we introduced when we started living together was to have a conversation about our finances the first day of each month when we develop a spending plan that we create on a shared Google spreadsheet.

In the spreadsheet, each row represents a smaller category of purchases like groceries, entertainment, and clothing that we earmark a certain amount of money toward for the month. We then log any purchases we make on the spreadsheet, and typically don’t discuss these purchases unless they are unexpected and large (like a dental bill). During our monthly financial meeting, we assess how we did with our spending and adjust for the month going forward. We added two new categories to our plan this year: a personal spending account for me and one for him. These accounts allow us a bit of privacy if we make a purchase we don’t necessarily want to share. (This was introduced after our tracking system ruined the surprise of gifts we gave each other over the holiday.)

Tracking all our purchases was painful when we first introduced it, because it focused us on the pain of parting from money. But it quickly became a source of strength, because it has encouraged us to have more regular check-ins with each other about the lives we want and how we can use our money to get us there.

—​Grant E. Donnelly, an assistant professor of marketing and logisticsat Ohio State University’s Fisher College of Business

Joint accounts (except for retirement)

I am the appointed CFO in my household. I remember when I approached my wife and kindly suggested that we hire a financial planner to take a fresh look at our own financial planning. She replied, “Isn’t this what you do?”

We handle both of our incomes in a joint checking account from where expenses are paid. From this checking account, we have monthly electronic transfers going out to an online bank joint savings account for short-term goals. Other transfers go out to brokerage accounts for longer-term goals. We each have our own retirement plans that I manage.

Every year, we sit down and review every financial account we have. My wife gets a one-page report along with copies of the Dec. 31 statements of each account, which I place in the “If I get hit by the bus” estate-planning folder. To keep working in financial harmony, we have another joint account in the same online bank that gets funded monthly. The balance is available solely to my wife to spend as she pleases. This approach works for us. Harmony and simplicity are worth the peace of mind that follows. And always be mindful of making it easier for your spouse to carry on in case the unthinkable happens.

—George Papadopoulos, fee-only financial planner in Novi, Mich.

Down the middle

My partner and I are very, very 50-50 in how we approach our finances. Anything shared—rent, electricity, internet, etc.—is split right down the middle. I have a system for tracking discretionary expenses, and at the end of the month the total of regular shared monthly expenses and one-off expenses gets split. My partner then pays that amount to our credit-card account(s) used for the monthly spending.

The 50-50 setup leaves neither of us feeling like we’re doing more than the other. We also make close to the same salary, so it feels fair.

—WSJ reader Charlie Donley, Philadelphia

A partnership, with guidance

When my husband, Ken, and I got married, we were well aware that money was one of the two primary issues that can come between couples and commonly lead to divorce (the other being sex). We decided early on to make sure that our finances wouldn’t ruin our marriage or create emotional or financial strife.

First, we tackled the obvious. Regarding living expenses and large purchases, we opened three checking accounts to pay bills: a joint account and individual accounts for each of us. Neither of us wanted to feel judged by our financial purchases nor be told what we could or could not buy. We pay all of our household expenses, including large purchases that we agree on like a car, through a joint account and our discretionary expenses through our personal accounts. I took on the role of managing our household expenses, primarily out of practicality. We each had an individual 401(k) that we contributed to regularly, and we started a joint investment account as well. We fund charitable giving—a big priority for us—through our joint account.

We partnered on investment and charitable-giving decisions and it didn’t take us long to realize that we needed professional guidance to educate us, help us make investment decisions, and, at times, arbitrate between us to determine the right financial strategies. While it’s not a conflict-free strategy, it has really worked well for us.

Maddy Dychtwald, author and co-founder of Age Wave think tank and consultancy

Proportionate spending

My wife and I have a joint account that all of our bills are auto-drafted from every month. Our mortgage, utilities, insurance, auto loans, everything. We figured what the total would be and then figured our proportionate income for the household. For example, my income accounts for 70% percent of the total household income. So, if our monthly bills are $4,000, I would contribute $2,800, or 70%, each month to the joint account and she would contribute her $1,200, or 30%. We did it this way so it would be fair and no one would feel like they are over-contributing or under-contributing, because it’s all relative and subjective.

We also take 10% of any commission or bonuses and put it straight into savings. The remainder is put into our individual accounts for daily life. We use that money for buying whatever we want. It prevents the other person from being upset if they feel too many Amazon packages are showing up at the door.

Daniel Rodriguez, chief operating officer at Hill Wealth Strategies in Richmond, Va.

A family finance meeting (kids included)

I did all of the finances at the beginning of our marriage. However, this inequity turned into a weird dynamic where my spouse felt like she needed to ask for permission to spend money. So, five years ago we developed a budget and financial scorecard.

Monthly, we track income, expenses and our personal balance sheet (assets, liabilities and net worth). The kids are involved in our financial meetings, where we discuss how much we plan on spending for vacations, eating out, etc. One month, the kids were overspending on school lunch ($400 for the month), so they proposed we make home lunches for the next month to balance things out. It has been a really awesome habit for our family and our net worth has increased 8x during the last five years.

—WSJ reader Regan Fackrell, St. George, Utah

Team effort

It’s important that we are a team on our spending and saving, rather than the husband paying for certain expenses and the wife paying for other expenses. That approach tends to create conflict. So we have both of our direct deposits going to the same checking account, from which we pay for all of our fixed household expenses, and most importantly, our goals. We also have a joint credit card for all other spending. We decide that if we’re going to make a purchase above a certain dollar amount—for example more than $500—we first discuss it so there are no surprises. We also take into consideration gifts for one another, such as for holidays and birthdays. During this time, we have an unwritten agreement that we don’t check credit-card statements so that there is still an element of surprise.

—Lisa Tuttle, Ameriprise financial adviser and co-owner of the Tuttle Group, Edina, Minn.

Separate and competitive

My girlfriend, Samantha, and I have been in a relationship for 12 years and have kept our finances completely separate. We use [money-management site] Mint to compare net worth to see which one of us is more effectively managing their portfolio. Whenever our combined net worth eclipses a new $100,000 milestone, we grab a celebratory meal. Who pays? Honestly, Sam usually pays. Otherwise, we’ll split the check using Venmo.

—WSJ reader Dave Cooper, Milwaukee, Wis.

Cold, clinical and intimate

The financial three-way: yours, mine, ours. This is the guiding framework that my partner, Jay, and I use to handle our finances. We are both in our 50s, divorced, and thanks to this system have not had a single money argument over the five plus years we’ve been together.

We decide what expenses we want to treat as combined and we each pay 50% of those costs. That bucket includes: costs related to the condo we own jointly, vacations we take together, and any other forms of entertainment we do as a couple. We then keep the remainder of our finances—both the savings/investments we accumulated prior to meeting as well as each of our current income streams—in our own separate accounts. We use that money as we see fit, from charitable giving to personal grooming.

On the surface, this may seem to be a very cold and clinical manner of handling finances. But in reality, it is shockingly intimate as it requires you to get financially naked and really talk about money with your partner.

—Manisha Thakor, founder of financial well-being consultancy MoneyZen in Portland, Ore.

Redundant, just in case

My wife, Patty, is the chief financial officer and takes the lead in paying bills and handling the majority of our banking. I’m the chief investment officer and do nearly all of the investing as well as taxes. But we build redundancy for two reasons—to make sure one of us doesn’t make a major mistake and so one of us can take over should the other be incapacitated.

We discuss major expenditures and reach agreement before such an outlay. Often times, we compromise. Patty will sometimes catch fraudulent expenditures or ongoing monthly charges for services we rarely use. She keeps our credit score high by paying bills on time.

As the CIO, I typically handle investments though, again, I don’t make any major moves without my wife’s buy-in. For example, I rebalanced during the Covid plunge back in March 2020, but only after her consent. We both have access to all accounts. We are not just partners in life; we also have a partnership in our finances.

—Allan S. Roth, founder of Wealth Logic, Colorado Springs, Colo.

Together, then separate, then together

We’ve been married 21 years. Initially, we just had a joint account we each contributed to, to cover the mortgage, utilities and other fixed costs. Then we went more separate for five years or so in divvying up certain items—and that didn’t work as well in working to plan and stay on track for our goals. It even created tension in our marriage.

Now, I run the finances for the family and share our budget and our overall financial picture regularly with full transparency. That allows us to discuss and make decisions that work for today and tomorrow. I use the 50/30/20 approach—50% of earnings go to essential needs (shelter, food, utilities), 30% to wants (entertainment, travel, etc.), and 20% to savings (retirement, house, car, emergencies)—and explain how as we work to pay off the mortgage, wants and savings will get a greater percentage than the target.

WSJ reader Stuart Robertson, Seattle

Preventing ‘frugal fatigue’

My wife and I have slightly different salaries with all sources of income deposited into a single joint account. Each month, we have a short budget meeting, during which we talk about unique expenses for that month—birthday parties, church events, summer camp and so forth. Sometimes, a little debate is inevitable. We set aside extra funds for those things, take a quick glance at the usual expenses and then move on.

We have a dollar amount above which discretionary purchases for the household are made jointly. And we give ourselves a certain amount of pocket cash and move some money into our personal accounts. When we were just starting out, the discretionary spending limit was $50, pocket cash was $20 a week and personal accounts had only a few hundred dollars. To prevent frugal fatigue in those early years, we made ourselves spend a small amount each week on a date night or fun activity. Obviously, those amounts grew over time, but we still stick to these strategies because they’re what got us here.

—John Graves, founder and managing partner of G&H Financial Group, North Canton, Ohio

Ms. Lourosa-Ricardo is a features editor for The Wall Street Journal. Write to cristina.lourosa@wsj.com 

This article was originally provided by WSJ to view the original article please click here.

 

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Ms. Lourosa-Ricardo is a features editor for The Wall Street Journal. Write to cristina.lourosa@wsj.com

Appeared in the February 14, 2022, print edition as 'THE BEST WAYS FOR COUPLES TO SHARE FINANCES.'


Financial News for the Week of February 11th, 2022

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

  • U.S. prices continued to heat up in January as headline inflation accelerated to 7.5% year-on-year from 7.0% in December. Excluding food and energy, core prices also rose notably over the year to 6.0% with broad-based increases across index components.
  • High inflation has firmed market expectations for aggressive tightening of monetary policy as the Fed is set to meet in mid-March. Financial markets responded with bonds yields generally heading higher, while equities retreated.
  • For 2021, the U.S. posted a record trade deficit of $859 billion as imports surged.

U.S. -All Eyes on the Price

In financial news it was all about inflation this week, as the January CPI surpassed expectations and markets recalibrated their expectations for rate hikes. Headline inflation accelerated 0.5 percentage points to 7.5% year-on-year (y/y) in January, reaching the highest level in 40 years (Chart 1). Strong consumer demand coupled with pandemic-related supply constraints resulted in the strong price gains. Core prices were also up significantly relative to year ago levels at 6.0% (up from 5.5% in December). Price increases were relatively broad based across the index, with categories such as used motor vehicles (up 40.5%) and gasoline (up 40%) recording some of the largest gains versus a year ago.

Financial News Chart 1 Consumer inflation in the u.s. hits a 40 year high

Inflation is increasingly a top concern for small businesses. A survey of independent businesses showed that 22% of owners viewed inflation as their single most important problem in January. This matched the highest level previously recorded in 1981. High input prices coupled with rising labor costs are cutting into small firms’ profits. In response, 61% of firms reported having already raised prices. However, fewer firms (a net 47%) are planning to do so in the next three months, suggesting that firms may be nearing their limit for passing on cost increases to consumers.

Financial markets also responded to the inflation report as equities fell and yields on the 10-Year Treasury touched 2% for the first time since 2019. These movements occurred on the expectation that persistent high inflation will result in tighter Fed policy. The market-implied probability of at least a 50-basis point rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting shifted to over 50% after the report, from 24% the day before, suggesting expectations of more aggressive tightening.

In other data, the U.S. trade deficit widened from $79.3 billion in November to $80.7 billion in December. The nation hit a record trade deficit of $859.1 billion for the full calendar year – a 27% increase over 2020 and blowing past the previous record of $763.5 billion in 2006 (Chart 2) in further financial news. For the year, imports were up 20.5% while exports grew by 18.5%. The notable rise in the trade deficit, highlights the strength of the U.S. economy as it rebounded from the pandemic. Consumers, supported by generous fiscal policy, shifted their spending patterns more towards goods over services during the pandemic, and consumer goods are heavily imported.

As the pandemic enters its third year, governments and citizens are more and more learning to just live with it. Many states, including California, Oregon, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, have announced that rules requiring masks and/or proof of vaccinations will end by March. Local governments and school boards, however, have the discretion to maintain their own requirements.

These announcements are a step towards returning to normal, even as recently introduced cross-border vaccine mandates for truck drivers have sparked protests resulting in blockage of the busiest land border crossing between the U.S. and Canada. The slowdown at the Ambassador bridge crossing caused several car manufacturers to halt or slow production due to delays in delivery schedules. As the border re-opens and normal flow of traffic resumes, these disruptions are expected to dissipate.

Shernette McLeod, Economist | 416-415-0413

 


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

 


Financial News for the Week of February 4th, 2022

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

  • This week provided the first glance at the economic impact of Omicron, which seems relatively benign compared to previous outbreaks. The poster child of this week is employment, which pulled off an Olympic medal’s worth performance, adding 467k jobs in January.
  • On the business side, both the manufacturing and services sector remained in expansionary territory, while auto sales surprised with solid growth, reaching the highest level in seven months.
  • Stock prices gyrated in sync with the earnings performance of individual tech companies. The bond market, meanwhile, reacted strongly to the employment data, with yields rising by 13 basis points for the week.

U.S. -Economy Endures Omicron

Financial News Chart 1: Employment Shakes Off Omicron Surge

This week in financial news provided the first glance at the economic impact of Omicron. As it turns out, the damage wasn’t as bad as feared, at least according to early economic indicators. Hot off the press, the jobs report came in faster, higher and stronger than anticipated by the market consensus. The economy pulled off an Olympic medal’s worth performance, adding 467k jobs in January (Chart 1). December and November data were revised up adding another 709k, bridging the employment gap to less than 2% of its pre-pandemic level. The laggard industry remains leisure and hospitality, where employment rose by 151k, but remains well below its pre-pandemic peak.

This week’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports filled in the narrative from the business perspective. Both the manufacturing and services sector indexes slowed in January, but continued to expand at an above-trend rate, with readings of 57.6% and 59.9%, respectively . As expected, Omicron weighed on demand, with services business activity dropping by 8.4 percentage points (ppts) and manufacturing production softening by 1.6 ppts. Some demand softening is a blessing in disguise as it helped reduce backlogs of orders, which dropped by 6.4 and 4.9 ppts for manufacturing and services sectors, respectively. Notably, demand for services still has room to grow, as it has not yet fully recovered from pandemic-related restrictions. Once the threat of Omicron fades, consumers are likely to direct more of their spending to services, giving the sector some added oomph.

At the same time, supply constraints may take a longer time to attenuate. Supplier delivery times remained relatively flat for manufacturing and increased marginally for the services sector (following a sizeable reduction in December in financial news). The tone of respondents’ comments on disruptions hardly lost its zing as the “lack of supplier manpower” continues to push prices up, affecting industries across the economy.

Financial News Chart 2: Auto Sales Jump in January

Nowhere is the impact of supply disruptions on prices more apparent than in the auto sector. This week, auto sales surprised with solid growth, reaching the highest level in seven months (Chart 2). The improvement can be attributed to a solid recovery in production, which was able to reduce the pre-pandemic gap from 30% in September to 8% in December. While chip shortages continue to affect the industry, anecdotal evidence suggests that Omicron has so far had a less dire impact on semiconductor supply chains compared to Delta.

All in all, early economic data suggest that the negative impact of the virus continues to diminish with each subsequent wave. Nevertheless, the equity market continued skating on thin ice as stock prices gyrated in sync with the earnings performance of individual tech companies. The bond market, meanwhile, reacted strongly to the employment data with yields rising by almost 10 basis points (bps) to an overall increase of 13 bps for the week (as of writing). This makes sense. With few signs of waning strength in the labor market, a data-dependent Fed is likely to act decisively to raise the federal funds rate starting at its next meeting in March. Balance sheet normalization shouldn’t be too far behind, but its pace is likely to be “gradual and not disruptive”, in the words of San Francisco Fed’s President Mary Daly.

Maria Solovieva, Economist | 416-380-1195

 


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

 


Financial News for the Week of January 28, 2022

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

  • The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting but signaled that a rate hike was imminent come March. Uncertainty on the pace of hikes post March remains elevated, contributing to stock market volatility this week.
  • The U.S. economy grew at 6.9% (annualized) in the final quarter of 2021 – a notable acceleration from the 2.3% pace in the in the quarter prior. Powering growth was a buildup of inventories.
  • Consumer spending ended the year on a soft note, with real spending down 1.0% (m/m) in December. Pending home sales also ended the year on weak footing, falling 3.8% last month.

U.S. -Fed Sets the Stage for Rates to Liftoff Soon

The last week of January was rich on data reports, but the FOMC meeting absorbed much of the limelight in financial news. While the Fed left its policy rate unchanged, it delivered its clearest warning yet of imminent rate hikes. A March rate hike is now almost guaranteed, with market odds currently pegged at over 95%. That is likely just the start in what is sure to be a sequence of hikes. Concerns about future monetary tightening contributed to stock market volatility this week. Ultimately, the pace of rate hikes will depend on the pandemic, global supply chains and how aggregate demand reacts to higher rates.

Financial News Chart 1: GDP Growth Accelerated to 6.9% in Fourth Quarter, Before Omicron Took Hold

The economy ended last year on a solid note, with a 6.9% annualized jump in fourth quarter real GDP. The acceleration in growth was powered by substantial inventory restocking. Inventories contributed 4.9 percentage points to the headline tally – accounting for over 70% of growth in the quarter (Chart 1). The inventory buildup was led by the retail and wholesale trade industries, with retail auto inventories leading the charge. Business investment (+2% annualized) and consumer spending (+3.3%) also contributed to growth, while a decline in government spending (-2.9%) was a small detractor.

Last quarter’s strong showing largely reflects activity before the Omicron infection wave took hold. Other data this week also pointed to slowing economic momentum at the turn of the year. December’s personal income and spending report showed that real spending fell 1.0% on the month, due primarily to a pullback in goods spending. Services spending remained in positive territory, but spending at restaurants and bars declined, likely reflecting consumer caution due to the rapid increase in COVID-19 infections. Close-contact services are likely to see further weakness in January as high-frequency indicators point to softening in things like air travel.

Inflation is adding to consumer woes in financial news. Echoing the acceleration in the Consumer Price Index, inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose to 5.8% year-on-year (y/y) in December. Meanwhile, core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – accelerated to 4.9% y/y, moving further away from Fed’s target (Chart 2).

Financial News Chart 2: Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge, Core PCE, Accelerated to 4.9% Fastest Clip Since 1983

Second-tier data reports also point to slower near-term growth. Pending home sales fell 3.8% in December, marking the second consecutive monthly decline for the series. Pending sales lead actual (closed) sales by 1-2 months, with the recent weakness pointing to a soft start to the new year. A dearth of housing inventory is a key factor behind the weaker year-end trend. Looking at the start of this year, higher mortgage rates and uneasiness among prospective buyers during a surge in COVID-19 infections, are also likely to weigh on activity.

The good news is that the Omicron wave is likely to prove a temporary hurdle to economic activity. New infections in the U.S. appear to have crested. As the economy clears this hurdle, growth should rebound from a modest sub-2% pace this quarter to a much faster clip come spring. Inflation, however, is likely to remain elevated through 2022, even as it decelerates from the current highs (see here).

Admir Kolaj, Economist | 416-944-6318

 


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

 


Financial News for the Week of January 21, 2022

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

  • Early signs of the pandemic’s toll on economic activity were evident in softer-than-expected home sales and a deceleration in regional manufacturing surveys.
  • The current soft patch will likely prove temporary, and the broader economic trend is still one of robust growth.
  • With strong demand showing increasing resilience to new pandemic waves, the Fed will remain on course to raise the federal funds rate.

U.S. -Momentum Slows Amid Pandemic Wave

This week’s data releases showed some slowing in U.S. economic momentum through the winter months in financial news. In line with last week’s reported pullback in retail sales, existing home sales took a tumble in December. The soft patch looks to have continued at the start of the year, with both the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys weakening to multi-month lows in January.

Fortunately, it wasn’t all bad news as housing starts exceeded expectations, hitting their highest level in nine months in December. The virus-induced demand slowdown is likely to prove temporary, and the supply side of the economy is still playing catch up. The Federal Reserve is likely to signal as much at its meeting next week, setting the stage for policy rate liftoff at its following meeting in March (link).

Financial News Chart 1: Housing starts near post-pandemic highs

First up, the good news. Wednesday’s release of December’s housing starts data showed homebuilders are adding supply to a market in dire need of it (Chart 1). Starts rose to 1.7 million units (annualized) in December, a 1.7% increase over the prior month. The gain built on upward revisions of 49k units in the prior two months. The improvement was entirely in the multifamily segment, which posted a 51k unit increase (+10.6% m/m), while the single-family segment pulled back 27k units (-2.6% m/m). As starts perked up, so did permitting activity. Permits were up 9.1% for the month, rising to 1.9 million – the highest reading since July 2020. As with starts, this was mostly a multi-family story as permitting in the segment rose 21.9%, dwarfing the 2.0% lift in the single-family segment.

Financial News Chart 2 Fed Manufacturing Surveys Show Deceleration in Growth

Homebuyers, on the other hand, showed some hesitancy in December. Existing home sales fell 4.6%, undershooting the market consensus for a 0.5% pull back. Surging Covid cases and a lack of inventory explain the setback. At the current pace of sales there exists only 1.8 months’ supply of homes – half the 3.9 months’ average in the three years before the pandemic.

This is an extraordinarily tight housing market, and with demand still strong it’s no surprise that the median transacted price again registered double-digit year-over-year gains – accelerating to 15.8% from 14% in November. The sharp rise in prices has worsened affordability in financial news. Higher interest rates will exacerbate this challenge and are likely to slow demand growth over the next year. The silver lining is that higher prices and higher carrying costs should lead to more supply in both the existing and new market, helping to rebalance the market.

Finally, softening economic conditions were reflected in the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing surveys in January. On an ISM adjusted basis, both pulled back for the month registering 54.4 and 57.6, respectively. While readings above 50 imply the expansion continued in January, the Empire state index is now at its lowest level since January of last year, while its counterpart out of Philadelphia is now at its lowest level since August.

That said, this week’s data reflect a temporary blip in the path of the recovery.  The Fed will remain focused on the broader trends – strong growth and persistent shortages – as they start the rate hiking cycle in the coming months.

Andrew Hencic, Senior Economist


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

 


Financial News for the Week of January 14, 2022

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

  • Equity markets saw further losses this week, following more hawkish messaging from the Fed. Between Powell and Brainard’s confirmation hearings and other Fed speakers, the signals for a March rate hike are flashing loud and clear.
  • December’s inflation data supported the case for a rate hike, with headline inflation reaching 7% year-on-year (y/y). Core inflation also surprised to the upside, and is now up 5.5% y/y – the highest reading in 30 years.
  • Retail sales showed a loss of momentum to end the year, as inflation erodes consumer purchasing power. Consumer spending is looking weaker in both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 relative to our latest forecast.

U.S. - Eyeing Inflation Like a Hawk

Equity markets experienced further losses this week in financial news, following more hawkish language from Fed officials that signaled rate hikes could kickoff as early as March. The S&P500 has fallen just over 3% from the beginning of the year. Treasury yields continue to march higher as markets adjust their expectation for monetary policy.

Looking at the recent inflation data, the case for rate hikes is clear. Headline CPI ended the year up 7% year-on-year (y/y), the fastest pace since 1982. In December, the month-on-month pace of inflation cooled slightly to 0.5%, as energy prices were a drag on the headline for the first time since April. But, core inflation was even hotter, up 0.6% m/m, driven by strong increases in shelter inflation and another jump up in used vehicle prices. While those items were the biggest contributors, prices were up strongly for a host of goods and services, continuing a trend of broadening price pressures that has been evident since October – the same month that Fed Chair Powell changed his tune on whether the run up in inflation is transitory.

Financial News Chart 1: Soaring Goods Prices Boost Inflation to 40 Year High

Accelerating goods prices take much of the blame for inflation’s 40-year record high (Chart 1). You have to go back to 1980 to see goods prices rising 12% in one year. Goods prices should cool over the coming year as production, inhibited by the pandemic and global input shortages, begins to normalize. But, just as it does, service price growth looks to accelerate. Services prices were up 4% year-on-year in 2021, an acceleration from a 3% pace immediately prior to the pandemic, but not out of line with past periods of economic strength. This is likely to move even higher in 2022, keeping pressure on the Fed to tighten policy.

The impact of elevated inflation is already evident in retail sales. Retail sales surged in the spring as a third round of stimulus payments from Washington hit Americans’ bank accounts. Nominal sales have plateaued, in part as consumption shifts away from goods, which dominate retail sales, and towards services. However, when you compare to sales adjusted for overall inflation, you see how price growth has increasingly eroded consumer purchasing power (Chart 2). Given that goods prices are up more than services, the picture is even more dire.

Financial News Chart 2: Adjusted for Inflation, Retail Sales Peaked in April

Any way you slice it, December’s retail sales data showed that consumer spending lost momentum towards the end of the year. Our December forecast projected real personal consumption expenditure growth around 6% in the fourth quarter. The data released since suggests that it is going to be closer to 4%. It also provides a soft starting point for the first quarter, where spending is likely to slow to 2% as consumer caution on Omicron weighs on close-contact services.

Inflation is also cutting into wage growth in financial news, something that has not gone unnoticed by Fed officials. At his Senate confirmation hearing, Fed Chair Jay Powell delivered his most hawkish messaging on inflation yet. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who is the nominee for Vice Chair of the FOMC to succeed Richard Clarida, echoed his remarks, mentioning that workers are worried about how far their paychecks would stretch. Other Fed officials who spoke this week similarly signaled that interest rates are forthcoming, likely beginning as early as March.

Leslie Preston, Senior Economist | 416-983-7053


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

 


Financial News for the Week of January 7, 2022

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

  • The U.S. economy kicked off the New Year with an unprecedented surge in COVID-19 cases. While a return to lockdowns is not expected, rising cases could lead to greater absenteeism, as workers self-isolate due to exposure, putting pressure on already-tight labor supply.
  • On the upside, several metrics suggests that the supply chain bottlenecks are beginning to ease. Specifically, supplier deliveries in both the manufacturing and services sector were faster in December than they have been in recent months.
  • On the labor front, employment came in softer than expected with 199k jobs added in December. The unemployment rate however continued to trek lower, hitting 3.9% (from 4.2%) while the labor force participation rate held steady at 61.9%.

 U.S. - Supply Chain Strains Show Signs of Easing

The economic calendar was jammed packed to start the new year in financial news. First up, a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases is quickly dwarfing all previous waves (Chart 1). Fortunately, hospitalization rates are not rising as swiftly, but are still ticking up at the same time that healthcare capacity is constrained by staffing shortages. The surge in cases has prompted airlines to cancel flights and companies to cut services and reduce hours as infected workers self-isolate (though for fewer days than past waves). With worker shortages already a pressing issue, the current wave is likely to weigh on near-term business performance and slow the recovery in high-contact services.

financial news chart one: Covid cases Surge to All-Time Highs, Putting Pressure on Hospitals

Adding to business challenges, workers are quitting their jobs at record rates, while job openings remain near all-time highs. Employers continue to add jobs, but job growth in December came in notably shy of the 450k anticipated by the market, at 199k. The disappointment was softened somewhat by a net 141k upward revision to the two previous months. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.1% to 3.9%, narrowing in on its pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. With high demand for workers and increasingly limited supply, it is little surprise that wage growth remains hot. Average hourly wages were up 4.7% from year ago levels in December, slowing slightly from 5.1% in November.

Such strength in the labor market, combined with more persistent inflationary pressures has added urgency to the Federal Reserve’s task of curtailing pandemic-induced support measures. Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting showed that more members are inclined to accelerate the pace of policy normalization. This culminated in the Fed’s decision to speed up the taper of their Quantitative Easing program and possibly faster rate increases.

On the production side, there was some good news on easing supply constraints. The ISM manufacturing index slipped to 58.7 in December from 61.1 in November. Despite the slip, manufacturing activity is still expanding at a healthy clip. More encouragingly, there were hints that supply-chain problems could be easing as the supplier delivery sub-index fell to 64.9 in December from 72.2 the previous month (Chart 2). The decline suggests that delivery times are improving, which is a relief given the severe bottlenecks that manufacturers have been facing.
Financial News Chart 2: Faster Deliveries Suggests Easing of Supply Chain Bottlenecks

There was also a pullback in the ISM services index to 62 from 69.1 in November. The outturn however was not unexpected, given that the previous reading hit a record. The service sector also saw improvement in supplier delivery times as the index fell by 11.8 percentage points to 63.9 – the lowest reading in the past eight months.

Further good financial news saw vehicle production levels in December improve from their September lows – inching back closer to the 1.1M recorded in November. While still well below the pre-pandemic level, the improvement points to further easing in supply constraints in this key economic sector.  Unfortunately, all of this data is for a time before the latest pandemic wave, and we could very well see a reversal in the months ahead. Still, with evidence this wave is progressing even faster than past waves, its peak should also not be too far in the future, allowing with any luck for the continued return to economic normalcy.

Shernette Mcleod, Economist | 416-415-0413


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

 


Financial News for the Week of December 17, 2021

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

  • Evidence of accelerating price pressures continued to trickle in this week. Producer prices accelerated to 9.6% year-on-year in November. This was accompanied by an elevated share of small businesses raising prices (+6 points to 59%).
  • After a strong gain of 1.8% in October, U.S. retail sales growth slowed to 0.3% (month-to-month) in November. Excluding the more volatile categories, sales in the “control group” fell 0.1% on the month.
  • The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting, but accelerated the taper of its Quantitative Easing (QE) program. This puts QE on track to end by March of next year, opening the door for rates to lift off soon after.


  Slaying the Inflation Dragon

Inflation remained the focus of financial news markets this week, with economic data providing continued evidence of accelerating price pressures. Producer prices picked up steam, rising to 9.6% year-on-year in November from 8.8% in the month prior. The acceleration indicates broad-based price pressures throughout the supply chain. Small businesses are also cranking up the pressure. The National Federation of Independent Businesses optimism survey showed that in November, 59% of businesses had raised average selling prices and another 54% plan to raise them further in the months ahead. The former metric is near its all-time high set in the 1970s and the latter is at a new record (Chart 1).
Financial News An Elevated Share of US Small Businesses Are Raising and Plan to Raise Prices

Inflationary pressures also featured prominently in the retail sales report. Sales rose 0.3% in November, below the consensus forecast for a 0.8% print (Chart 2). A strong 1.7% showing in sales at gasoline stations, which reflects hefty energy price gains, helped drive up the headline. Excluding the more volatile categories (including gasoline), sales in the “control group,” used to estimate personal consumption expenditures (PCE), were down 0.1% on the month. The soft November print can be partially explained by some pull-forward in activity, with consumers starting their holiday shopping early given expected shortages and delays. Less generous holiday discounts relative to what consumers may have been accustomed to are also likely to have played a role in last month’s slow-down. A further moderation in activity is likely in December, given the added hurdle of a worsening epidemiological situation.
Financial News US Retail Sales Growth Eased in November

New COVID-19 infections have risen across much of the country and hospitalizations have followed suit. The infections trend is likely to worsen further with the spread of the much more transmissible Omicron variant, which has been detected in most U.S. states (see here). This is expected to weigh on consumer and tourism-related activities.

The Fed is well aware of the above two competing forces – rising inflationary pressures and a worsening public health situation. Economic projections from this week’s FOMC meeting show that most committee members expect the setback from the latest infection wave to prove short-lived. The median forecast calls for the unemployment rate to fall further, reaching 3.5% by the end of 2022. Another potential obstacle to growth, the country’s debt ceiling, was neutralized with the swipe of the pen on Thursday, with President Biden signing a $2.5T ceiling increase into law.

Continued progress toward maximum employment will allow the Fed to focus its efforts on slaying the inflation dragon. It is already moving in that direction. The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting, but accelerated the taper of its Quantitative Easing (QE) program. The Fed will reduce the monthly pace of purchases of Treasuries securities by $20 billion and agency mortgage-back securities by $10 billion. This puts QE on track to end by March of next year, opening the window for rates to lift off soon after. This is in line with our expectations. In our updated forecast published earlier this week, we pulled forward our call for the first rate hike to the second quarter of next year, with two more hikes to follow later in the year. This will still leave monetary policy in an accommodative stance, but should help to stem the inflationary tide.

Admir Kolaj, Economist | 416-944-6318

 


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

 


Financial News for the Week of December 10, 2021

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

• Consumer prices continued to accelerate in November. On year-on-year basis, headline CPI was up 6.8% (from 6.2%
previously), the highest in nearly forty years in financial news. Core inflation (ex. food and energy) also accelerated, hitting 4.9% (from
4.6% in October).
• This week’s jobs data signaled more tightness with weekly jobless claims dropping to 184,000 and the ratio of unemployed
to job openings falling to a new historic low.
• Wage pressures are creeping higher. The possibility of faster wage growth become entrenched in prices may motivate the
Fed to move even faster.

 


  All About Inflation

It’s inflation week! Anticipation of today’s CPI report created some anxiety in financial markets but ultimately left them back to where they started on Monday. In financial news equity markets appear to have shrugged off Omicron concerns and remains driven by still-solid expectations for earnings. The bond market appears more cautious on the outlook, with long-term yields well below late November levels, even as Fed communication turns more hawkish.

Chart 1: Inflation Continues to Accelerate Financial News

Consumer prices continued to accelerate in November. On a year-on-year basis (y/y), headline CPI was up 6.8% with gasoline prices growing by 58% relative to last year and adding 2.3 percentage points to the headline reading (Chart 1). Food prices remained the second biggest contributor to growth, rising at 6.1% y/y.

Meanwhile, strong demand for goods amidst ongoing supply shortages, continued to drive core prices (ex. food and energy), which picked up to 4.9% y/y. A key source of core price pressures was new and used vehicle prices, which expanded by 11.1% and 31.4% y/y, respectively. In terms of service prices, the shelter cost component continued to accelerate, rising by 3.8% y/y (up from 3.5%). Market-based home prices of the largest metros suggest that there’s more upside for shelter costs ahead (see report), which could lead to more persistent elevated inflation in 2022.

On the labor side of the Fed’s mandate, this week’s jobs data signaled more tightness, with weekly jobless claims dropping to 184,000 – the lowest level since September 1969. Meanwhile, the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported 11 million available jobs in October. This number is close to its record high in July and higher than the 6.9 million of workers who were unemployed that month. In fact, the ratio of the unemployed to job openings dropped to an historical low in the month. Adding marginally attached workers back to the labor force, the ratio of unemployed to job openings is slightly higher, but still in line with the average observed in 2019 when the labor market was the healthiest it had been in fifty years.
Chart 2: In Real Terms Total Compensation Remains Below Its Pre-pandemic Level Financial News

Another reason for labor market tightness is an elevated number of people who are quitting jobs. This fell in October to  4.2 million (from 4.4 million in September), but remains well above pre-pandemic norms. The number of quitters was particularly high in leisure & hospitality and retail trade sectors, which collectively accounted for 40% of quits in October.  Notably, these sectors are among the lowest paying and experienced the highest growth in real compensation over the period of the pandemic (Chart 2). Considering that workers in these sectors are in close contact with consumers and face the highest health risk, further increases may well be in store in the coming quarters.

Indeed, inflation is currently rising much faster than wage growth. The story is worse if you consider that total hours are still most depressed at the low end of the wage spectrum, inflating the aggregate reading. The risk of workers demanding higher wages to compensate for the increase in prices (thereby entrenching higher inflation) is becoming a risk the Federal Reserve can no longer ignore and is likely to lead to a faster pace of asset purchase tapering and the start of rate hikes by the second quarter of 2022.

Maria Solovieva, CFA, Economist  | 416-380-1195

 

 


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

 


Financial News for the Week of December 3, 2021

FINANCIAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

• The ISM manufacturing index showed signs of easing supply chain conditions in financial news. Supplier delivery times shortened while
production, employment and new orders indexes all increased.
• This week’s payrolls report left something to be desired, but a pop in household employment and a rise in the labor force
participation rate are welcome signs of a recovery in labor supply.
• While the first glimmers of abating supply side issues have emerged, the Omicron variant threatens to undo the progress.

 


 U.S. - Supply Issues Easing, but Omicron Looms

Volatility was the name of the game this week in financial news as markets whipsawed on news of the Omicron variant’s identification in the U.S., and Chairman Powell’s more hawkish stance. Inflation remains front and center as Chairman Powell retired the term “transitory” when describing recent price gains. That said, November’s data offered signs that supply chains challenges have begun to ease, offering some promise of inflation relief.

Financial News Shorter Supplier Delivery Times, but Strong Demand Keeps Customers Inventories Sparse

This week’s release of November’s ISM manufacturing survey gave one such signal. The report showed growth accelerating as the expansion carried on for its 18th consecutive month. The details provided further reasons for optimism. The supplier delivery times subindex remained extremely high (you have to look back to the late 1970’s to find a comparable lead time prior to the pandemic), but it pulled back for the first time in three months (Chart 1). Alone, this move doesn’t mean much, but the production, employment, and new orders indexes also all moved higher in November. An environment where production, orders, and employment growth are increasing while supplier delivery times are narrowing is a signal that some of the bottlenecks we’ve been seeing are beginning to clear.

Alas, not all of the news was good. Customer inventories continue to languish at low levels and the index pulled back on the month. This is likely a reflection of continued strong demand that has left producers trying to keep up. Indeed, this month’s vehicle sales report was a reflection of those tight conditions, as monthly sales disappointed, falling to 12.9 million units (at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate). Automotive production ticked up in October, but remains well below underlying demand, which is likely closer to 1.45 million per month. This means inventories will remain scarce for the time being.

At the same time, this week’s payrolls report showed a slowing in the pace of job growth. Markets had expected north of 500k jobs to be added to payrolls, so the 210k realized in November missed the mark.

Despite the disappointing print in the payrolls report there were several reassuring details in the household survey. Household employment increased by 1.1 million people, taking the employment to population ratio up to 59.2%, and continuing its steady improvement. An additional million people working is a good sign, but the increase in the labor force participation rate is another welcome sign for the supply side of the economy (Chart 2). To alleviate reported labor shortages the number of Americans active in the labor market has to increase, and nearly 600 thousand added their names to the hat in November.

Financial News Labor Supply has yet to Recover

This year has been characterized by ample demand and a virus-induced supply shock that has pushed inflation to multi-decade highs. November’s data started showing us signs that the supply side of the economy has begun to recover. The data are reassuring for now, but the emergence of the Omicron variant could derail the fragile improvements that have been made. Even without lockdowns in the U.S., restrictions in less vaccinated nations, or worker fears of infection, could pinch the supply of inputs and labor, pushing prices higher.

Andrew Hencic, Senior Economist

 

 


This Financial News report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.